000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from southeastern Mexican state of Chiapas along 92W southward into the Pacific Ocean to near 06N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in satellite imagery from N of 09N between 88W and 94W between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Guatemala-Mexico border. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 05.5N75W to 11.5N90W to low pres near 11.5N118W 1014 mb to 11.5N116W to 09.5N127W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 05N and E of 80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 09N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 13N between 95W and 120W, and from 08N to 12N between 121W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from the coast of southern California southwestward across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, and continues to prevent the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja offshore waters. This is yielding gentle to moderate NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja, while moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula. Northerly swell has begun to fade across the regional waters today, with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevailing across the Baja offshore waters, except 8 to 9 ft across the far NW waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are across most of the northern Gulf of California, and mainly gentle winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate WNW to W winds also prevail offshore of southern Mexico. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in long- period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Late afternoon heating across Baja will induce fresh winds across the offshore waters there through early morning before diminishing to moderate for Mon. Winds offshore of Cabo San Lucas will continue to pulse to fresh to strong this evening and again Mon. Moderate S to SW winds will continue across the Gulf of California, pulsing to fresh winds across westerly gap wind areas each evening. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop late Mon through Tue offshore of southern California, with an associated trough extending SSW across the far offshore waters of Baja Norte. This will again block the NE Pacific ridge from building into the area waters and act to reduce winds again to gentle to moderate late Mon through Thu. NW winds will continue to pulse to fresh each afternoon and evening near Cabo San Lucas. Seas will subside slightly through Mon before new N swell moves into the offshore waters of Baja Norte and raises seas to 5 to 8 ft Mon night through Tue evening. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate WNW to W winds will continue through mid week across the remaining offshore waters of Mexico, with winds increasing near the coast each late afternoon and evening. Little change in seas is expected across these waters through mid week as cross equatorial swell persists. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An elongated cyclonic circulation in the low levels of the atmosphere continues across portions of central America and the adjacent Pacific waters today, current stretching from offshore of El Salvador to the eastern Bay of Campeche. This features is forecast to meander over this general area for the next several days. Afternoon convection has begun to develop from interior Nicaragua to the Yucatan Peninsula, where abundant moisture resides, and will likely persist through the evening hours. Convection is likely to shift into the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala overnight. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details associated with the wave along 92W. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 5 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters and along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala through mid week before shifting westward toward Tehuantepec. Gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late tonight through Mon morning and then again on Mon night. Moderate SW winds are expected to develop offshore from Ecuador tonight, and then spread northward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. New southerly swell will move into the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia tonight and raise seas slightly through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from 1031 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 34N137W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 118W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft south of 29N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh NE tradewinds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 25N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. Deep convection has developed today along the monsoon trough between 110W and 130W, under well defined upper level divergence. Afternoon ASCAT data suggested a 1014 mb surface low along the trough near 11.5N118W. An increasing pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low offshore of southern California is going to produce fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from Mon night into Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft as the high pressure weakens. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W should change little tonight through Tue as new cross equatorial swell arrives tonight through Mon. This swell and increasing monsoonal winds on Tue will raise seas to 7-8 ft late Tue through Wed. $$ Stripling