000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221628 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated surface trough extends from the coastal waters off the coast of El Salvador near 12.5N91W northeastward to northern Honduras. This features is forecast to meander over this general area for the next several days. Sporadic deep convection producing locally heavy rainfall had been flaring up over the interiors of Honduras and Nicaragua overnight. Abundant tropical moisture currently in place across the region is expected to yield strong afternoon convection over interior Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Chiapas in Mexico, and nearby Pacific waters that will continue through the evening hours. Localized flooding was been reported in Nicaragua and Honduras yesterday. Mudslides are also be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather agency for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico along 91.5W and W portions of Guatemala into the Pacific Ocean to near 06N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen in satellite imagery from 08N northward to the coasts between the Gulf of Fonseca and the Mexico-Guatemala border between 87W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W across Costa Rica to 09.5N84W to 13N94W to 11.5N116W to 08.5N132W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 80.5W, and N of 08.5N between 87W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 97W and 102W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is present from 07N to 12.5N between 105W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... S to SW winds are moderate to locally fresh across most of the northern Gulf of California this morning, and gentle to moderate over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the southern Gulf. A surface trough extends from low pressure across southern California southward into Baja California Norte, and continue to prevent the NE Pacific ridge from building fully into the Baja offshore waters. While moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and curl cyclonically around the southern tip of the peninsula, gentle to moderate NNW winds prevail elsewhere across the the Baja California offshore waters. Gentle to moderate WNW to W winds also prevail offshore of southern Mexico. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell west of Baja California peninsula. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in long-period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, little change in wind patterns is expected across the area waters through Mon. moderate to fresh S to SW winds across the northern Gulf of California will increase to fresh to locally strong this evening and tonight, then diminish moderate to fresh after sunrise Mon. W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will decrease to moderate by mid morning, then pulse back to fresh again tonight and Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, then diminish toward the next weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall potential across Central America. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details associated with the wave along 91.5W and the Central America offshore waters. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 6 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon night, and also develop across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Mon. E to SE gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late tonight through Mon morning and then again on Mon night. Moderate southerly winds should develop offshore from Ecuador this afternoon, and then spread northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. Light southerly swell across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should rise to moderate by Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from 1029 mb high pressure across the NE Pacific near 35N136W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 17N and west of 125W. Moderate to fresh NE tradewinds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 17N and west of 113W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather in this area. An increasing pressure gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low over southern California is going to cause fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from Mon night into Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W should decrease and reach 5 to 6 ft by Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere across the area. $$ Stripling