000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough reaches east-northeastward from a broad low pressure off the Guatemala/El Salvador coast near 12N93W across El Salvador into Honduras and Nicaragua. These features are forecast to persist over the general area for the next several days. Sporadic deep convection capable of producing locally heavy rainfall had been flaring up over the interiors of Honduras and Nicaragua earlier. This trend should resume later today and will continue through Mon evening, and spread northwestward over El Salvador, Guatemala, Chiapas in Mexico and nearby Pacific waters Mon morning. Localized flooding was been reported in Nicaragua and Honduras yesterday. Mudslides will also be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather agency for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico along across Mexico-Guatemala border into the Pacific Ocean near 02N92W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to the Guatemala-El Salvador coast between 87W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica-Panama border across 11N110W to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 110W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 11N between 98W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... S to SW winds remain fresh across most of the northern Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are peaking at 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate WNW to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also offshore of southern Mexico. Seas in NW swell are 6 to 9 ft west of Baja California peninsula. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds across the northern Gulf of California will diminish to between moderate and fresh after sunrise this morning. W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will decrease to moderate by mid morning, then pulse back to fresh again tonight and Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through midweek, then become light toward the next weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall across Central America. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for weather in Central America offshore waters. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 5 to 6 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon night, and also spread southeastward into the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Mon. E to SE gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late tonight through Mon morning and then again on Mon night. Moderate southerly winds should develop offshore from Ecuador this afternoon, and then spread northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. Light southerly swell across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should rise to moderate by Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure across the NE Pacific near 35N135W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 18N and west of 122W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident from just north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 17N and west of 113W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather in this area. Increasing gradient between the surface ridge and a developing low over southern California is going to cause fresh to strong NNW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas well off Baja California Norte from Mon night into Tue morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft will persist north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of the Baja California/central Mexico offshore waters through Tue afternoon. By Tue night, N to NE winds should subside to between gentle and moderate, and seas to between 6 and 7 ft. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02N to 10N west of 87W should increase to between moderate and fresh Tue morning thru Wed afternoon. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W should decrease and reach 5 to 6 ft by Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere across the area. $$ Chan