000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220532 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough reaches east-northeastward from a broad low pressure off the Guatemala/El Salvador coast near 12N93W across El Salvador into Honduras and Nicaragua. These features are forecast to persist over the general area for the next several days. Sporadic deep convection has been flaring up over the interiors of Honduras and Nicaragua. This trend should continue through Mon, then spread northwestward over El Salvador, Guatemala, Chiapas in Mexico and nearby Pacific waters on Mon afternoon. Localized flooding was been reported in Nicaragua and Honduras yesterday. Mudslides will also be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather agency for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico along across Guatemala into the Pacific Ocean near 03N92W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 11N to the Mexico-Guatemala border between 89W and 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica-Panama border across 11N110W to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 111W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 11N between 99W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds remain across most of the northern Gulf of California tonight, with gentle to moderate SW to S winds over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are peaking at 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also offshore of southern Mexico. Seas in NW swell are 7 to 9 ft west of Baja California Norte, except 9 to 10 ft far NW waters, and 5 to 7 ft west of Baja Sur. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds across the northern Gulf of California will diminish to between moderate and fresh Sun morning. W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will pulse to fresh during night time tonight through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through the middle of next week before becoming light. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall across Central America. Heavy rainfall potential appears to be focused on interior portions from Nicaragua to Costa Rica through this evening. Convergent monsoonal winds are sustaining scattered showers near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Ecuador. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in Central America offshore waters. The monsoon trough has lifted northward and extends from central Nicaragua westward along 12.5N. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 6 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon night, and also spread southeastward into the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Mon. E to SE gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late tonight through Mon morning and then again on Mon night. Moderate southerly winds should develop offshore from Ecuador by Sun, and then spread northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. Light southerly swell across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should rise to moderate by Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends south and southwestward from high pressure across the NE Pacific near 38N135W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 124W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 24N and west of 129W. Fresh NNW to N winds and 8 to 13 ft seas are evident north of 25N between 121W and 134W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 6 to 8 ft south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 120W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather in this area. Fresh northerly winds well off Baja California Norte to 130W will persist for the next few days. Seas in this area will gradually subside tonight through Sun morning to 8 to 9 ft, then increase slightly Mon through Tue. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to moderate to fresh early next week. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will subside to 6 to 7 ft by Sun morning, then increase to 7 to 8 ft Sun evening through Mon as new SW swell arrives. Little change is expected elsewhere across the area. $$ Chan