000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre (CAG), currently extends across Central America and the adjacent western Caribbean and eastern tropical Pacific, and is forecast to persist across this area over the next several days. This feature will continue to enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, maintain the monsoon trough across Central America, and transport abundant moisture northward. In response, clusters of deep convection have begun to develop this afternoon across Central America from Costa Rica to interior Guatemala, and will continue into the evening hours. Clusters of deep convection are also persisting across the Pacific offshore waters from Nicaragua to Guatemala and south of Chiapas, Mexico. Localized flooding was been reported in Nicaragua and Honduras last night, and this afternoon's convection may yield similar results. Mudslides will also be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather agency for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico along across Guatemala into the Pacific Ocean near 03N92W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 10N to the coastal zones of Nicaragua and Guatemala, and extends inland. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica-Panama border across 11N110W to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 111W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 11N between 99W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh S to SW winds remain across most of the northern Gulf of California this afternoon, with gentle to moderate SW to W winds generally prevailing across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are peaking at 4 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also offshore of southern Mexico. Seas in NW swell are 7 to 9 ft west of Baja California Norte, except 9 to 10 ft far NW waters, and 5 to 7 ft west of Baja Sur. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds will diminish across the northern Gulf of California through sunset, then briefly pulse fresh to strong this evening before diminishing overnight through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas will increase to fresh tonight and then again Sun evening and night. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall across Central America. Heavy rainfall potential appears to be focused on interior portions from Nicaragua to Costa Rica through this evening. Convergent monsoonal winds are sustaining scattered showers near the Pacific coast of Costa Rica and Ecuador. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in Central America offshore waters. The monsoon trough has lifted northward and extends from central Nicaragua westward along 12.5N. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 6 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon, and are expected to reform over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Mon and Tue. E to SE gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late Sun night through Mon morning and then again Mon night. Moderate southerly winds should develop offshore from Ecuador by Sun, and then spread northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. Moderate southerly swell across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should briefly drop tonight through Sun night before new moderate southerly swell arrives Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends south and southwestward from high pressure across the NE Pacific near 38N135W, to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 124W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 24N and west of 129W. Fresh NNW to N winds and 8 to 13 ft seas are evident north of 25N between 121W and 134W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 6 to 8 ft south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 120W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather in this area. Fresh northerly winds well off Baja California Norte to 130W will persist for the next few days. Seas in this area will gradually subside tonight through Sun morning to 8 to 9 ft, then increase slightly Mon through Tue. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to moderate to fresh early next week. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will subside to 6 to 7 ft by Sun morning, then increase to 7 to 8 ft Sun evening through Mon as new SW swell arrives. Little change is expected elsewhere across the area. $$ Chan