000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211622 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre (CAG), currently extends across Central America and the adjacent western Caribbean and eastern tropical Pacific, and is forecast to shift west to northwestward over the next several days. This feature will continue to enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, maintain the monsoon trough across Central America, and transport abundant moisture northward. In response, clusters of deep convection are expected to develop today from northern Costa Rica across interior Nicaragua to Honduras. Clusters of deep convection are currently persisting along the Pacific coasts of far NW Nicaragua to Guatemala and will persist across this area today and affect coastal zones. Localized flooding has been reported in Nicaragua and Honduras overnight. Mudslides will also be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather agency for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from southeastern Mexico along 91W across Guatemala to the Pacific Ocean near 04N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 10N to the coastal zones of Guatemala, El Salvador and far NW Nicaragua between 87W and 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W across Nicaragua to 13N91W to 11N105W to 11N115W to 07N134W. The ITCZ continues from 07N134W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 10N between 87W and 94W, and from 06N to 13.5N between 95W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 07.5N to 12.5N between 122W and 134W, and from 06N to 07.5N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of California, S to SW winds are fresh across the northern part, and moderate to locally fresh in the southern part. Seas are peaking at 4 to 7 ft in the northern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the southern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail elsewhere off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also offshore of southern Mexico. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas in NW swell are 7 to 9 ft west of Baja California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft west of Baja Sur. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period southerly swell prevail across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh S to SW winds will continue across the northern Gulf of California through early this afternoon, then diminish this afternoon, then pulse fresh to strong again this evening. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas today and will increase to fresh tonight. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Tue afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will persist through the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall across Central America. Heavy rainfall potential appears to be focused on interior Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala through this evening. Convergent monsoonal winds are sustaining scattered showers and weak thunderstorms near the coast of Costa Rica and Ecuador. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in Central America offshore waters. The monsoon trough has lifted northward and extends from central Nicaragua westward along 12.5N. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 6 to 7 ft seas exist in the offshore waters from Guatemala southeastward to Colombia. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail offshore from Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Mon, and reform over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia on Sun. E to SE gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh late Sun night through Mon morning. Moderate southerly winds should develop offshore from Ecuador by Sun, and then spread northwestward into the outer offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica on Tue. Moderate southerly swell across the offshore waters from Guatemala to Colombia should briefly drop to light Sun night through Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends southward from a high pressure across the NE Pacific across the northern waters to just north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, and west of 124W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 130W. Fresh NNW to N winds and 8 to 13 ft seas are evident north of 26N between 121W and 130W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 6 to 8 ft south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 110W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active weather in this area. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh early this afternoon, then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area will also decrease to 8 to 9 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to between moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the Galapagos Islands and 110W will subside to 6 to 7 ft by early Sun morning, then increase to 7 to 8 ft Sun evening through Mon as new SW swell arrives. Little change is expected elsewhere across the area. $$ Stripling