000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 21 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG) across Central America and the adjacent western Caribbean 
is forecast to shift west to northwestward over the next several
days. This feature will enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, 
lift the monsoon trough northward across Central America, and 
transport abundant moisture northward. In response, convection is
expected to become more widespread, starting today, over the 
southern portions of Central America, and then gradually shift 
north and northwestward across northern portions of Central 
America and adjacent waters. There will be the potential for 
locally heavy rainfall near the Pacific coast of Central America,
and also the eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Flash 
flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas that receive the
heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local
weather service for more information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends southward from Belize along 89W across 
portions of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, and into the 
eastern Pacific to near 04W. Associated convection described 
below, has become scattered over land and behind the wave this 
afternoon, affecting interior portions of Panama, Costa Rica, 
Nicaragua and Honduras. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica across 11N110W
to 09N126W. The ITCZ continues from 09N126W to beyond 140W at 06N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between
87W and 125W, and from 06N to 10N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong S to SW winds are across the northern Gulf of 
California this afternoon, while recent scatterometer data showed 
moderate to fresh S to SW winds occurring across the remainder 
of the Gulf, with fresh SW gaps in the vicinity of Isla Espiritu 
Santo. Peak seas are 5 to 7 ft in the northern Gulf. Fresh NW 
winds prevail near Cabo San Lucas and curl around the southern 
end of the peninsula. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail 
elsewhere off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and 
also from near Cabo Corrientes southeastward to offshore of 
Mexico, and become fresh along the coast of Oaxaca. Light to 
gentle mainly NW to W winds are elsewhere over the open waters 
off Mexico. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in NW swell prevail west of the 
Baja California peninsula, and 6 to 7 ft seas in long-period 
southerly swell are across the offshore waters of central and 
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will prevail
across the northern Gulf of California through tonight and then
gradually diminish Sat. Seas are expected to peak at 6 to 8 ft 
this afternoon and evening. Fresh NW to W winds are expected
along the coast of Cabo San Lucas tonight through Sat morning,
while fresh N to NW winds are expected off of Cabo Corrientes. 
Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will then prevail from 
near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through Mon afternoon. 
Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and 
moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico 
coast will continue through midweek next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
development of a potential heavy rainfall event.

Convergent monsoonal winds are initiating scattered showers and 
thunderstorms near the coast of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica 
this afternoon, and are likely to begin moving ashore this 
evening and tonight. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon 
trough along with 5 to 7 ft seas can be found over the offshore 
waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW monsoonal winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft dominate 
the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Moderate 
southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present near the Galapagos
Islands and off the Ecuador shore.

For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
associated with the Central American Gyre will linger across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia through Sat, and
Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Sun. Moderate
to fresh SW winds across the southwestern offshore waters of 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia will gradually subside
to gentle by tonight. East to southeast winds off the Papagayo 
region are going to pulse to fresh late Sun night through Mon 
morning. Moderate southerly swell should continue across all the 
offshore waters well into next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends southward into the area waters
from high pressure centered over the NE Pacific, and extends
across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west 
of 125W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure associated with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is 
maintaining moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft north 
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 130W, and fresh to 
locally strong NNW winds north of 25N between 122W and 130W, 
where seas are 8 to 13 ft in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 95W, except 7 to 8 ft 
south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 110W. Refer to 
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for location of the active 
weather in this area.

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California
Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh Sat morning, 
then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area will also 
decrease to 8 to 9 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds south of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to between 
moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the Galapagos 
Islands and 110W will subside to 6 to 8 ft by early Sun then
increase to 7 to 8 ft Sun through Mon as new SW swell arrives. 
Little change is expected elsewhere across the area.

$$

Chan