000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 20 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre
(CAG) has formed across the western Caribbean and Central 
America this morning, and is forecast to shift west to 
northwestward over the next several days. This feature will 
enhance the existing SW monsoon flow, lift the monsoon trough 
northward across Central America, and transport abundant 
moisture northward. In response, convection is expected to 
become more widespread, starting today over the southern 
portions of Central America, and then gradually shifting north 
and northwestward into northern portions of Central America and 
adjacent waters. There will be the potential for locally heavy 
rainfall near the Pacific coast of Central America, and also the
eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Flash flooding and 
mudslides will be possible in areas that receive the heaviest 
rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather 
service for more information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends southward from the Bay of Honduras 
across Honduras and El Salvador into the eastern Pacific near 
08N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
flaring up from 07N to the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from central Nicaragua across 10N110W 
to 07N131W. An ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 140W at 
06N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N 
between 90W and 120W, and from 06N to 10N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong SW winds are across the northern Gulf of
California, and NW winds near Espirito Santo and Cabo San Lucas
in the southern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW
winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, 
and also from near Cabo Corrientes southeastward to offshore of 
Oaxaca. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail
west of the Baja California peninsula, and 5 to 6 ft seas in 
long-period southerly swell are across the offshore waters of 
central and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in 
the northern Gulf of California later this morning and last 
through early Sat morning. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds 
are also expected east of Espirito Santo Island, and near Cabo 
San Lucas until late this morning. Moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore 
Oaxaca through Mon afternoon. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja 
California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the 
central and southern Mexico coast will prevail through midweek 
next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
development of a potential heavy rainfall event.

Convergent monsoonal winds are triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and Colombia. 
Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 5 to 6 
ft seas can be found over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El 
Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal 
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Moderate southerly winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are present near the Galapagos Islands and off the 
Ecuador shore.

For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will linger across the offshore waters of Costa 
Rica, Panama, Colombia through Sat, and Nicaragua, El Salvador, 
Guatemala through at least Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds across
the southwestern offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, 
Panama and Colombia will gradually subside to gentle by this 
afternoon. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region are going to 
pulse to fresh late Sun night through Mon morning. Moderate 
southerly swell should continue across all the offshore waters 
well into next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough is maintaining moderate NNE to NE winds and 
seas of 6 to 7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west 
of 130W, and fresh to locally strong NNW winds north of 26N 
between 124W and 134W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in fresh 
northerly swell. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 
95W, except 7 to 8 ft south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands
and 95W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for more active
weather in this area.

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds well off Baja California
Norte will subside to between moderate and fresh by Sat morning,
then increase again Mon morning. Seas in this area will also
decrease to between 7 to 8 ft by Sun morning. Southerly winds 
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough should increase slightly to 
between moderate and fresh early next week. Seas between the
Galapagos Islands and 95W are going to drop and reach 5 to 6 ft
by Sun. Little change elsewhere in the area.

$$

Chan