000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200510 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form across the western Caribbean and Central America Fri into the weekend, and shift west to northwestward. This is the climatologically favored time of year for these broad low pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's increase the strength of SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture northward. This CAG will cause convection to become more widespread, starting Fri over the southern portions of Central America, and then gradually shifting north and northwestward across portions of Central America and the adjacent waters west of Central America. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in regions of enhanced orographic lift. Flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends southward from the Bay of Honduras across Honduras and Nicaragua into the eastern Pacific near 08N86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and adjacent waters. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border across 09N105W to 07N129W. An ITCZ continues from 07N129W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 86W and 120W, and from 06N to 09N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong SW winds are across the northern Gulf of California, and NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate NW to NNW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula, and also extends from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore of Oaxaca. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, and 5 to 6 ft seas in long-period southerly swell are across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. Haze continues to be reported at coastal sites from the entrance of Gulf of California southward to Tehuantepec due to seasonal agricultural fires over Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Fri morning and last through early Sat morning. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are also expected east of Espirito Santo Island, and near Cabo San Lucas late tonight through late Fri morning. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds will prevail from near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca through the weekend. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula, and moderate southerly swell off the central and southern Mexico coast will prevail through midweek next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on the development of a potential heavy rainfall event. Convergent monsoonal winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and Colombia. Light to gentle winds near the monsoon trough along with 5 to 6 ft seas can be found over the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft dominate the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Some haze has been reported at coastal sights from El Salvador northward to southern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will linger across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia through Sat, and Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala through at least Sun. Moderate to fresh SW winds across the southwestern offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia will gradually subside to gentle by Fri afternoon. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region are going to pulse to fresh on Sun night. Moderate southerly swell should continue across all the offshore waters well into next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 130W, and fresh to strong NNW winds north of 26N between 124W and 133W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 102W, except 7 to 8 ft south of 10N between the Galapagos Islands and 112W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for active weather in this area. Fresh to strong northerly winds will extend from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W through the end of the week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft range in fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, only a very slight decrease in winds and seas is expected across the open waters S of 22N and W of 125W, with tranquil marine conditions anticipated through this weekend. $$ Chan