000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form across the 
western Caribbean and Central America late this week into the 
weekend, and shift west to northwestward. This is the 
climatologically favored time of year for these broad low 
pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's 
increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north 
of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture 
northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection, 
starting Thursday over the southern portions of Central America, 
which will gradually shift north and northwestward across 
portions of Central America and the adjacent waters west of 
Central America, as the monsoon trough lifts northward. There 
will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over portions of
Central America, especially in regions of enhanced orographic 
lift. Flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas that
receive the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to products issued 
by your local weather service for more information. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from the southwest Caribbean along 
80W/81W southward across Panama and into the tropical northeast 
Pacific to near 03N, and is moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across the 
Pacific waters north of 03N east of 83W, but is scattered to 
numerous across the southwest Caribbean and interior Columbia to 
the N and E of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N77W to 09N89W to 09N102W to
09N117W to 08.5N128W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N128W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted north 
of 03N east of 83W, and from 06N to 13N between 88W and 105W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 90 nm 
either side of the trough and ITCZ between 110W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California 
Norte this afternoon. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of 
Baja California Sur, and become moderate westerly and wrap 
around the southern tip of the peninsula. Moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. 
Light to gentle mainly NW to W winds are elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in NW swell off 
Baja California Norte, 5-8 ft off the coast of Baja California 
Sur, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the remainder of the open waters 
off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of 
California, highest near the entrance of the Gulf. Haze continues
to be reported at coastal sites from the entrance of Gulf of 
California southward to Tehuantepec due to seasonal agricultural 
fires over Mexico.

Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja 
California through this evening before diminishing to gentle to 
moderate through Sun afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly flow in the Gulf of California will persist today. 
Fresh to locally strong S-SW will develop in the northern Gulf 
of California early Fri through midday Sat. Winds there may peak
near 30 kt Fri afternoon and evening, with seas building to 6-7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near 
Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca tonight
through the end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the 
waters off Baja California Norte through the week, subsiding late
this weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
development of a potential heavy rainfall event.

Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south 
of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, except moderate gap winds offshore southern 
Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell. Some 
haze has been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward
to southern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

Gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon 
today, increasing to moderate to fresh Thu through Fri. Light to
gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through 
Fri night, except moderate across the Papagayo region and 
offshore southern Nicaragua this afternoon. New Long-period 
southerly swell has entered the regional waters today, and will 
increase slightly tonight through Fri before slowly fading. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds occurring south of the monsoon trough
will shift northward to 09N on Fri, with the monsoon trough, as 
the CAG described above in the special features section begins to
develop. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 110W, centered on a 1032 mb high near
35N135W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon 
trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of
6-8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 28N and west of 
120W, and locally fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 
130W, where seas are 7-9 ft in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas are north of 28N and 
west of 129W near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough and west of 106W, except 7 to 8 ft south of 10N between 
the Galapagos Islands and 118W. East of 110W, light to gentle to 
winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 6-7 ft
seas.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will extend from offshore 
southern California into the waters north of 27N between 120W and
130W through the end of the week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft
range in fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, only a very slight
decrease in winds and seas is expected across the open waters W
of 125W, with tranquil marine conditions anticipated through 
this weekend.

$$
Stripling