000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172020 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Global models suggest that a broad area of low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and then shift across Central America late this week into the weekend. This is the climatologically favored time of year for these broad low pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection, starting over the southern portions of Central America, which will gradually lift northward across portions of Central America and across the waters west of Central America as the monsoon trough lifts northward. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in regions of enhanced orographic lift. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N106W to 10N123W to 09N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 77W and 89W, from 09N to 11N between 89W and 93W, within 270 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 106W and 116W, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 94W and 100W, and from 06N to 09N between 116W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Baja California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California. Moderate N to NE winds are offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off the coast of Baja California Sur, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the Gulf of California, highest near the entrance and also in the northern Gulf. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico, while areas of dense fog are evident in afternoon visible satellite imagery just offshore Baja California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California through mid-week, diminishing to gentle to moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow in the Gulf of California will persist through Wed. Fresh to locally strong S-SW may develop in the northern Gulf of California early Fri through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte through the week, subsiding late this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information on a potential heavy rainfall event. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate winds offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms persist from offshore Colombia to offshore eastern Costa Rica. Some haze has been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh late Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to fresh over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed. Winds may briefly pulse to fresh to strong over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua tonight. A moderate long-period southerly swell will linger through mid-week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 26N and west of 115W, locally fresh to strong north of 27N between 120W and 127W with 7-9 ft seas in fresh northerly swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 26N and west of 129W near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 106W, except to 8 ft south of the Equator. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas, except to 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will extend from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W through mid-week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, little change in conditions are expected across the open waters through the week with rather tranquil marine conditions anticipated this weekend. $$ Lewitsky