584 AXPZ20 KNHC 170856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N90W to 10N123W to 07N135W. The ITCZ continues from 07N135W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N east of 98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 106W and 120W, and from 05N to 10N between 120W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Baja California Sur. Gentle to locally moderate winds are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 6-7 ft off the coast of Baja California Sur, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California through mid-week, diminishing to gentle to moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will develop in the Gulf of California today through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte through the week, subsiding this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate winds offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Some haze has been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to fresh over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed. A moderate long- period southerly swell will linger through mid- week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad area of low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and then shift across Central America late this week into the weekend. This is the climatologically favored time of year for these broad low pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection, starting over the southern portions of Central America, which will gradually lift northward across portions of Central America and across the waters west of Central America as the monsoon trough lifts northward. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in regions of enhanced orographic lift. Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for more information. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 27N and west of 115W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 27N and west of 128W near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will extend from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W through mid-week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, little change in conditions are expected across the open waters through the week. $$ AL