775 
AXPZ20 KNHC 170230
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N106W to 09N115W to
07N133W. The ITCZ continues from 07N133W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted north of 03N E of
85W, from 05N to 13N between 85W and 96W, and from 03N to 08N
between 106W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 10N between 112W and 132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja 
California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Baja 
California Sur. Moderate N winds are offshore Tehuantepec. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico 
from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in NW swell off Baja 
California Norte, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California.
Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of 
California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
west of Baja California through mid-week, diminishing to gentle 
to moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow 
will develop in the Gulf of California Tue through Wed. Moderate 
to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas
to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the
end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off 
Baja California Norte through the week, subsiding this weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south 
of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh winds offshore 
southern Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft in S to SW swell 
across the offshore waters south of the monsoon trough, and 4-6 
ft north of the monsoon trough. Some haze has been reported at 
coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to nearby 
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh 
Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north 
of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to fresh
over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed. A 
moderate long- period southerly swell will linger through mid- 
week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by 
Thu. 

Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad area of low 
pressure may form across the western Caribbean and then shift 
across Central America late this week into the weekend. This is 
the climatologically favored time of year for these broad low 
pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's 
increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north 
of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture 
northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection, 
starting over the southern portions of Central America, which 
will gradually lift northward across portions of Central America 
and across the waters west of Central America as the monsoon 
trough lifts northward. There will be the potential for locally 
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in 
regions of enhanced orographic lift. Please refer to products 
issued by your local weather service for more information. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and 
within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to 26N and west of 115W, with gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 26N and west of 128W
near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7
ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west 
of 118W. Elsewhere east of 118W, light to gentle to winds are 
noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will extend 
from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N 
between 120W and 130W through mid-week, along with seas in the 
7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, little 
change in conditions are expected across the open waters through
the week.

$$
AL