000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 09N115W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 08N to 12N between 84W and 93W, from 07N to 10N between 110W and 118W, and from 04N to 11N between 121W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 93W and 97W, from 05N to 08N between 131W and 135W, and from 07N to 09N between 138W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California Norte. Moderate winds are west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N winds are offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico, while areas of dense fog are noted in early morning visible satellite imagery offshore Baja California Norte from Punta Eugenia northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds offshore Tehuantepec will diminish this morning. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte through midweek before diminishing slightly. Moderate winds will prevail west of Baja California Sur through the end of the week. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow will develop in the Gulf of California Tue through Wed. Moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the end of the week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft in S to SW swell across the offshore waters, except 4-6 ft south of eastern Panama. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia and Panama, with isolated to scattered offshore Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Some haze has been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate offshore southern Nicaragua. A moderate long-period southerly swell will linger through early this week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late this week. This will lift the monsoon trough well north of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far north as the Nicaraguan waters. This will also advect abundant moisture northward, with an increase in convection gradually lifting northward across portions of Central America and across the waters west of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 22N and west of 118W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft north of 22N and west of 128W near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 118W. East of 118W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong northern winds will extend from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W mid-week, along with seas in the 7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, fairly tranquil marine conditions and little change are expected across the open waters through the week. $$ Lewitsky