000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N98W to 10N115W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N E of 81W, and from 04N to 10N between 84W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 105W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 122W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N winds are offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, except to 8 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte through midweek before diminishing slightly. Moderate winds will prevail west of Baja California Sur through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds offshore Tehuantepec will diminish early today. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate offshore southern Nicaragua. A moderate long-period southerly swell will subside through early this week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late this week. This will lift the monsoon trough well N of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the Nicaraguan waters. This will also advect abundant moisture northward, with an increase in convection gradually lifting northward across portions of Central America and across the waters west of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 26N and W of 115W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft north of 26N and west of 128W near the high center. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 115W. East of 115W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. $$ AL