000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160112
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N97W to 10N115W to 
07N127W. The ITCZ continues from 07N127W to 06N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N
between 80W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
09N between 95W and 110W, and from 08N to 11N between 120W and
128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 132W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja 
California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are west of Baja
California Sur. Moderate N winds are Offshore Tehuantepec. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico 
from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell over the 
open waters off Mexico, except to 8 ft across the far NW waters 
of Baja Norte. Seas are in the 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern 
Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over 
Mexico.

For the forecast, winds will freshen west of Baja California 
Norte early in the week as high pressure shifts closer to the 
region. Fresh winds offshore Tehuantepec will pulse to strong 
late tonight into early Mon. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja 
California Norte tonight building seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south 
of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh 
Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north 
of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate offshore
southern Nicaragua. A moderate long-period southerly swell will 
subside through early week, with a slightly larger set of 
southerly swell arriving by Thu. 

Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure
may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late
next week. This will lift the monsoon trough well N of its 
current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the
Nicaraguan waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and 
within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate winds and seas
of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 24N and W of 
115W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft north
of 24N and west of 128W near the high center. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of 115W. East of 115W, light to gentle to
winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft
seas. 

$$
AL