000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 07N90W to 09N110W to 11N119W to 09N124W. The ITCZ continues from 09N124W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 80W and 90W, from 08N to 11N between 120W and 126W, and from 04N to 09N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 95W and 111W, and from 09N to 15N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh N winds are Offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas are in the 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula will freshen west of Baja California Norte early in the week as high pressure shifts closer to the region. Fresh winds Offshore Tehuantepec will pulse to strong late tonight into early Mon. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte tonight building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, except moderate offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate offshore southern Nicaragua. A moderate long-period southerly swell will subside through early week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late next week. This will lift the monsoon trough well N of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the Nicaraguan waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 24N and W of 115W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-6 ft north of 24N and west of 128W near the high center. A trough extends from 22N117W to 11N119W near the monsoon trough where a persistent area of low pressure has dissipated during the past few hours. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 115W. East of 115W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. The trough will drift westward while continuing to weaken through the early part of the week, with winds and seas in the vicinity diminishing. $$ Lewitsky