000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151451 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N90W to 09N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N119W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 78W and 85W, from 05N to 07N between 93W and 99W, within 90 nm northwest-north of the monsoon trough between 114W and 124W, and from 04N to 10N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh N winds are Offshore Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 8 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas are in the 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires over Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula the remainder of the weekend. Winds will freshen west of Baja California Norte early in the week as high pressure shifts closer to the region. Fresh winds Offshore Tehuantepec will pulse to strong late tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte late today, bringing an increase in seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh Wed night through Thu night. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough through Thu night. A moderate long- period southerly swell will subside through early week, with a slightly larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late next week. This will lift the monsoon trough well N of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the Nicaraguan waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 115W, except 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 127W near the high center. A persistent 1011 mb low pressure center is analyzed within the monsoon trough near 09N119W. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft are in the vicinity of the low. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of 10N and west of 110W. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas. The area of low pressure will drift westward while weakening through the early part of the week, with winds and seas in the vicinity diminishing. $$ Lewitsky