000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N96W to 10N109W to low pres near 10N118W to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 84W, and from 07N to 13N between 103W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 123W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 8 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas are in the 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California except around 1 ft across far N portions. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula this weekend while winds across the Gulf of California will diminish slightly. Winds will freshen west of Baja California Norte early next week as high pressure shifts closer to the region. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere. NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte late Sun, bringing an increase in seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough through Tue. Long-period southerly swell will increase seas slightly this weekend. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late next week. This will act to lift the monsoon trough well N of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the Nicaraguan waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 10N and west of 110W, centered on a 1026 mb surface high near 32N135W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 115W. A persistent low pressure center is analyzed within the monsoon trough near 10N118W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 8-9 ft are in the vicinity of the low. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 10N and west of 110W. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4 to 7 ft seas. The area of high pressure will continue to weaken this weekend, allowing for winds and seas to decrease. The area of low pressure will drift westward within the monsoon trough with fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft continuing for the next few days as the low passes S of the ridge. The low will weaken considerably by early next week, with winds and seas in the vicinity then diminishing. $$ AL