454 AXPZ20 KNHC 142049 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N86W to 11N112W to low pres near 10N117.5W to 08N121W. The ITCZ continues from 08N121W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N E of 83W, and from 06.5N to 13.5N between 104W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 07.5N between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds persist off the coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in NW swell over the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas remain and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California except around 1 ft across far N portions. A broad surface ridge remains centered well NW of the area and is producing a modest pressure gradient across the regional waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail west of the Baja California peninsula while winds across the Gulf of California will diminish slightly this weekend and shift to southerly on Sun. Winds will freshen west of Baja California Norte early next week as the ridge shifts slightly eastward. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere W of Acapulco through Tue, before moderate WNW winds develop by Wed. Seas of 4-6 ft will prevail across much of the open waters off Mexico, except to 7 ft across the far NW waters of Baja Norte. Seas of 2-4 ft are expected across the Gulf of California. New NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte late Sun bringing an increase in seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle mainly NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the regional waters in S to SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough through early Mon. New long-period southerly swell entering the regional waters today will build seas slightly this weekend. Looking ahead, global models suggest that broad low pressure may form across the western Caribbean and Central America late next week. This will act to lift the monsoon trough well N of its current position and could produce fresh SW winds as far N as the Nicaraguan waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the waters north of 10N and west of 110W, centered on a 1026 mb surface high near 32N135W. The pressure gradient S of the associated ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7-9 ft to the S of 24N and W of 125W. A persistent low pressure center is analyzed within the monsoon trough near 10N117.5W. Fresh winds and seas of 8-9 ft are in the vicinity of the low. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 10N and west of 110W. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4 to 7 ft seas. The area of high pressure will weaken into the weekend, allowing for winds and seas to decrease. The area of low pressure will drift westward within the monsoon trough with fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft continuing for the next few days as the low passes S of the ridge. The low will weaken considerably by early next week, with winds and seas in the vicinity then diminishing. $$ Stripling