711 AXPZ20 KNHC 120938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica from near 11N85W to 10N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ extends from 06N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 09N between 92W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 0530 UTC confirmed fresh to strong NW winds are ongoing off the coast of Baja California, between high pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressure over northern Mexico.The strongest winds were observed north of Punta Eugenia. Earlier wave height observations indicate 8 to 10 ft seas off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. There is a component of NW swell embedded in this area of combined seas greater than 8 ft. Farther south, satellite depictions of lower level moisture indicate a plume of drier air across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is indicative of a gap wind event that is underway, supported by strong high pressure north of the region over the Gulf of Mexico. Recent reports from Salina Cruz on the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec indicated fresh to strong winds. This is an indication winds are near-gale offshore currently. The stronger gap winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient due to the high pressure north of the area, but also due to local drainage flow effects which are most prominent during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas persist. For the forecast, the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is supporting near-gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, and will support a shorter pulse tonight into Fri. Farther north, fresh to strong winds will persist off Baja California through late Fri between high pressure over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over northern Mexico. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist off Baja California as well through Fri. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California later today and tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the South American offshore waters. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds prevail for the Central American offshore waters, except moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell is across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua mainly at night through early Fri, with fresh to occasionally strong pulses possible Fri night into early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Long-period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure extends across the area north of 05N and west of 110W, supporting fresh to strong N to NW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 05N and west of 110W. East of 110W, gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist north of the area, supporting fresh to strong trades across much of the waters north of the tropical convergence zone area and west of 110W through early Fri, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. The high will weaken by the end of the week into the weekend allowing for winds and seas to diminish. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may develop and move along the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W with fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas building to 8 to 9 ft near the center by Fri. $$ Christensen