000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120343 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica from near 10N86W to 10N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ extends from 06N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 07N to 09N between 95W and 97W, and from 07N to 11N between 102W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations and a recent altimeter satellite pass, along with earlier scatterometer satellite pass, altogether indicate fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with 8 to 10 ft seas. These winds and seas are in an area between strong high pressure west of the region over the north Pacific Ocean, and lower pressure over northern Mexico. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are starting to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, related to strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and local drainage effects. Wave heights are likely only about 6 ft there so far. Light to gentle winds persist across the Gulf of California and elsewhere off Mexico with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support near-gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Thu, and a shorter pulse Thu night into Fri. Farther north, the fresh to strong winds will persist off Baja California through late Fri between the high pressure over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over northern Mexico. The winds will diminish thereafter as the high pressure weakens. NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist off Baja California as well through Fri. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California Thu and Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the South American offshore waters. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds prevail for the Central American offshore waters, except moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell is across the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua mainly at night through early Fri, with fresh to strong pulses possible Fri night into early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Long-period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure extends across the area north of 05N and west of 110W, supporting fresh to strong N to NW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of 05N and west of 110W. East of 110W, gentle to moderate winds are noted on either side of the monsoon trough with 4 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist north area, supporting fresh to strong trades across much of the waters north of the convergence zone area and west of 110W through early Fri, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. The high will weaken by the end of the week into the weekend allowing for winds to diminish. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may develop and move along the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W with fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas building to 8 to 9 ft near the center by Fri. $$ Christensen