316 
AXPZ20 KNHC 112047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N83W to 1010 mb low pres near 10N107W to another 1010 mb low
pres near 08N113W to 06N120W. The ITCZ extends from 06N120W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N 
to 14N between 100W and 119W and from 07N to 14N and W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific combined with troughing
over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds offshore 
Baja California Norte, with moderate to fresh NW winds offshore
Baja California Sur. Seas are 7 to 10 ft offshore Baja California
in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere,
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for 3 ft or less in the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California 
Norte will continue through tonight, then gradually diminishing 
on Thu, becoming gentle to moderate by Fri. Fresh NW swell off 
Baja California aided by these winds will linger through Fri and 
will subside by Fri night. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected
in the Gulf of California from Thu through Fri. Strong gap winds
will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri, possibly 
reaching near gale-force tonight through Thu night. Fairly 
tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the offshore 
waters by the end of the week through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the
South American offshores. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds prevail
for the Central American offshore waters, except moderate to
locally fresh NE winds in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell is across the offshore 
waters. Scattered thunderstorms persist near the Gulf of Panama 
and the western coast of Colombia, N of 04N and E of 90W. 

For the forecast, winds offshore from the Papagayo region and 
southern Nicaragua will pulse to fresh tonight into early Thu, 
then to fresh/strong during the late night and early morning 
hours through early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Long-period, light southerly swell in the region will 
build to moderate this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure extends across the area. Fresh to locally strong 
northeast-east winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 
125W. Moderate trades are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 8 to 9 ft prevail across the
whole area from 14N to 27N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the
area, supporting fresh to strong trades across much of the 
waters north of the convergence zone area and west of 120W 
through early Fri, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. The high will 
weaken by the end of the week into the weekend allowing for winds
to diminish. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may develop 
and move along the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W with the 
potential for increasing winds and building seas by the end of 
the week into the weekend.

$$
ERA