000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 
10N86W to 10N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N117W
to 07N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 11N between 94W and 115W and from 06N to 14N 
and W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific combined with troughing
over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds offshore 
Baja California Norte, with moderate to fresh NW winds offshore
Baja California Sur. Seas are 7 to 10 ft offshore Baja California
in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere,
along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California north of the entrance. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Haze was 
seen on early Tue afternoon high resolution visible satellite 
imagery from near Cabo Corrientes southward and continues to be
reported on land stations in southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California 
Norte will spread southward today. These winds should gradually 
diminish Thu night, becoming gentle to moderate by Fri. Fresh NNW
swell off Baja California aided by these winds will linger 
through Fri and will subside by Fri night. Fresh to strong NNW 
winds are expected in the Gulf of California from early Thu 
through early Fri. Strong gap winds will begin in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec early this morning and continue through early Fri, 
possibly reaching near gale- force Wed night through Thu night. 
Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the 
offshore waters by the end of the week through the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the
South American offshores. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds prevail
for the Central American offshore waters, except moderate to
locally fresh NE winds in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Seas 
of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell is across the offshore 
waters. Scattered thunderstorms persist across the Gulf of Panama
and off the western coast of Colombia, N of 03N and E of 84W.
Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off in the offshores of
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Some haze is occurring 
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador.

For the forecast, winds offshore from the Papagayo region and 
southern Nicaragua will pulse to fresh to locally strong late 
tonight into early Thu, then to fresh during the late night and 
early morning hours through early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere. Long-period, light southerly swell in the
region will build to moderate this weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure extends across the area. Fresh to locally strong 
northeast- east winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 31N and W of
118W. Moderate trades are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 16N and 
east of 115W due to fresh to strong NW winds offshore southern 
California and Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft 
elsewhere over the open waters, locally to 8 ft in the fresh 
trade winds.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build across the
area. This high will support fresh to strong trades across much 
of the waters north of the convergence zone area and west of 120W
through early Fri, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. The high will 
weaken by the end of the week into the weekend allowing for winds
to diminish. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may develop 
and move along the monsoon trough between 108W and 120W with the
potential for increasing winds and building seas by the end of 
the week into the weekend.

$$
AReinhart