000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102027 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia at 1008 mb low pressure near 10N75W to across Costa Rica to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N93W to 10N110W to 06N121W. The ITCZ extends from 06N121W to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 90W, from 07N to 14N between 90W and 100W, and from 06N to 12N between 100W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 126W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific combined with troughing over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California Sur. Seas are 7 to 10 ft offshore Baja California in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern periphery of the aforementioned 1009 mb low are seen across the southern offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Haze is seen on early afternoon high resolution visible satellite imagery from near Cabo Corrientes southward, and is also reported at many coastal land stations. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte will spread southward tonight. These winds should gradually diminish Thu night, becoming gentle to moderate by Fri. Fresh NNW swell off Baja California aided by these winds will linger through the week. Fresh to strong NNW winds are expected in the Gulf of California from early Thu through early Fri. Strong gap winds will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through early Fri, possibly reaching near gale-force Wed night through Thu night. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast across the offshore waters by the end of the week through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the South American offshores. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds prevail for the Central American offshore waters, except moderate NE in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell is across the offshore waters. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms persist across the Gulf of Panama and off the western coast of Colombia to offshore Costa Rica. Some haze is occurring offshore Guatemala and El Salvador. For the forecast, winds offshore from the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to fresh to strong late Wed into early Thu, then to fresh during the late night and early morning hours through early Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Long-period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the NW waters from 30N126W to 27.5N135W to 28N140W to west of the area. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are along and behind the front. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends across the waters south of the front and north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are just southeast-south of the front, with moderate to locally fresh trades elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Mainly moderate southerly flow is south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 8 to 10 ft north of 24N and east of 124W due to fresh to strong NW winds offshore southern California and Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere over the open waters, locally to 8 ft in the fresh trade winds. For the forecast, the front will dissipate over the northern waters through early Wed with reinforcing high pressure building behind it. The reinforcing high will support fresh to locally strong trades across much of the waters north of the convergence zone area and west of 120W through early Fri, along with 7 to 10 ft seas. The high will weaken by the end of the week into the weekend allowing for winds to diminish. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure may develop and move along the monsoon trough between 110W and 120W with the potential for increasing winds and building seas by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky