000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica coast near 11N85W to a 1009 mb low near 12N98W to a 1011 mb low near 10N113W to 07N120W. The ITCZ extends from 07N120W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 91W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N and W of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific continues to support mostly moderate to fresh NNW winds off the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT data depicted an area of strong N winds north of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Large NNW swell is sustaining 7 to 10 ft seas off Baja California. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1 to 3 ft, with 4 to 5 ft seas at the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed NW and southerly swell prevail across the central and southern Mexico offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern periphery of the aforementioned 1009 mb low are seen across the southern offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the eastern Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, winds off Baja California Norte will become fresh to strong later today, and spread southward to off Baja California Sur tonight. These winds should gradually diminish Thu night, reaching gentle to moderate by Fri. Larger NNW swell off the Baja California Norte will linger through most of the week. By Wed, the swell will spread southward to Baja California Sur, with seas increasing to 8 to 10 ft and will start to subside by Fri. Fresh to strong NNW winds are expected at the Gulf of California from Thu morning through Thu night. Strong gap winds will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed through Fri, and possibly reach near gale- force Wed night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the South American offshores. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell prevail for the Central American offshore waters. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms persist across the Gulf of Panama and off the western coast of Colombia, N of 03N and E of 82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coastline of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, in addition to the offshores of Guatemala. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail across the offshore waters of the South American offshores through Fri, then become gentle in the weekend. Winds offshore from the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua should pulse to fresh during the late night and morning hours from Wed night through Sat. Winds could pulse to strong early Thu morning. Long- period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward across the area to near 14N122W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh to locally strong NE trades N of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate NNE trades are present from just north of the monsoon trough to 23N and east of 125W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Large NW swell is maintaining 7 to 9 ft seas N of 17N, and 5 to 8 ft seas south of 17N, west of 97W. East of 97W, seas are at 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will sustain fresh NNE to NE trade winds W of 125W today. Large NW swell will continue to support seas of 7 to 8 ft north of 17N today. A cold front will enter the area this morning, then push southward through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds with 8 to 10 ft seas will accompany the front, which will dissipate by Wed. Behind the front, high pressure will reinforce across the area. As a result, a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected along with building seas to around 10 ft N of 10N. Winds will begin to diminish by Fri. Seas will slowly subside on Sat. $$ AReinhart