000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from the Costa Rica coast near 10N86W to a 1008 mb low near 12N96W to a 1010 mb low near 10N112W to 07N121W. The ITCZ extends from 07N121W to 08N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 124W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific continues to support moderate to fresh NNW winds off the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Large NNW swell is sustaining 7 to 10 ft seas off Baja California, and seas in the Gulf of California are 1 to 3 ft. Seas 4-5 ft are present at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate mixed NW and southerly swell prevail across the central and southern Mexico offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern periphery of the aforementioned 1008 mb low are seen across the southern offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds off Baja California Norte will become fresh to strong on Tue, and spread southward to off Baja California Sur by early Wed morning. These winds should gradually subside starting Thu, reaching gentle to moderate by Fri night. Larger NNW swell just off the Baja California peninsula will decrease slightly by Tue before returning by Tue night. This swell will subside by Fri. Fresh to strong NNW winds are expected at the Gulf of California from early Thu morning through Thu night. N to NE winds near the Gulf of Tehunatepec will increase on Wed, reaching fresh to strong Wed evening through Fri, winds might peak at near-gale force at times. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds are noted across the South American offshores. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in light southerly swell. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in light southerly swell prevail for the Central American offshore waters. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up across the Gulf of Panama, N of 04N and E of 82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coastline of Costa Rica in addition to Guatemala. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and southern Colombia through Fri, then become gentle in the weekend. Winds offshore from the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua should pulse to fresh during the late night and morning hours from Wed night through Sat. Winds could pulse to locally strong early Thu morning. Long- period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward across the area to near 14N122W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades N of 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades are seen from the ITCZ to 20N and east of 130W and north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NNE trades are present from just north of the monsoon trough to 20N and east of 127W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Large NW swell is maintaining 7 to 9 ft seas N of 20N, and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 20N, west of 97W. East of 97W, seas are at 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will sustain fresh NNE to NE trade winds W of 120W through Tue morning. Large NW swell will continue to support seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 19N through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the area Tue afternoon, then push southward across the area through late Wed. Behind the front, high pressure will reinforce across the area. As a result, a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected along with building seas to around 10 ft N of 10N. Winds will begin to diminish by Fri into Sat. Seas will slowly subside through the weekend. $$ AReinhart