000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from southern Costa Rica through a 1009 mb low near 12N96W and a 1011 mb low near 10N108W to 07N119W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 91W and 115W. An ITCZ continues from 07N119W to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered showers are noted from 02N to 09N and east of 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern periphery of the aforementioned 1009 mb low are seen across the southern offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. A broad surface ridge over the NE Pacific continues to support moderate to fresh NNW winds off the Baja California peninsula, and gentle winds in the Gulf of California. Large NNW swell is sustaining 7 to 10 ft seas off Baja California, and seas in the Gulf of California are 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell prevail across the central and southern Mexico offshore waters, except light southerly swell off Oaxaca, Mexico. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds off Baja California Norte will become fresh to strong on Tue, and spread southward to off Baja California Sur by early Wed morning. These winds should gradually subside starting Thu, reaching gentle to moderate by Fri night. Fresh to strong NNW winds are expected at the Gulf of California from early Thu morning through Thu night. N to NE winds near the Gulf of Tehunatepec will increase on Wed, reaching fresh to strong Wed evening through Fri, winds might peak at near-gale force at times. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will linger near Oaxaca through Wed morning. Larger NNW swell just off the Baja California peninsula will decrease slightly this evening and Tue before rising back up again on Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up south of the monsoon trough near the Panama-Colombia border and adjacent waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the central and southern Colombian coastline. Scattered showers are noted near the shores of other Central American nations. Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoonal winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in light southerly swell are found across the offshore waters of Ecuador, southern Colombia and near the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle SW to WNW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in light southerly swell prevail for the central American offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and southern Colombia through Fri, then become gentle in the weekend. Winds offshore from the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua should pulse to fresh during the late night and morning hours from Wed night through Sat. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia through Wed. Long-period, light southerly swell in the region will build to moderate this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward across the area to near 14N122W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades from 20N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades are seen from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 127W, and also east of 130W and north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NNE trades are present from just north of the monsoon trough to 20N and east of 127W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Large NW swell is maintaining 7 to 9 ft seas N of 20N, and 5 to 7 ft seas south of 20N, west of 97W. East of 97W, seas are at 5 to 6 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, the ridge will sustain fresh NNE to NE trade winds W of 120W through Tue morning. Large NW swell will continue to support seas of 7 to 9 ft north of 19N through Tue morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the area Tue afternoon, then push southward across the area through late Wed. Behind the front, high pressure will reinforce across the area. As a result, a large area of fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected along with building seas to around 10 ft N of 10N. Winds will begin to diminish by Fri into Sat. Seas will slowly subside through the weekend. $$ Chan