000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Panama and southern Costa Rica
near 09N83W to a 1009 mb low near 11N97W to a 1011 mb low near 
10N113W to 07N126W. The ITCZ extends from 07N126W to 03N133W to 
beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 06N to 14N between 92W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 09N and E of 84W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

ASCAT data overnight depicted moderate to fresh winds off the 
Baja California peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh winds are 
noted in portions of the northern and central Gulf of California,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Gentle winds 
are elsewhere across the Mexico offshores. Seas 8-12 ft are 
noted NW of Baja California N of 24N, with seas of 5-7 ft in 
long- period swell across the rest of the western Baja California
Sur coast. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2-4 ft in the 
northern Gulf of California, and 2-3 ft over the rest of the 
Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft at the entrance to the Gulf due to NW swell
mixing with a south swell component. Seas of 5-6 ft due to a 
south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the 
Guatemala border.

For the forecast, fresh winds will prevail off the western Baja 
California coast today with fresh to strong winds returning to
the region on Tue. These winds will spread southward offshore 
Baja California Sur and continue through Thu. The swell will 
slightly subside north of Punta Eugenia today, but return by Wed 
with the strong winds. Fresh to strong northwest winds are 
expected to surge through Gulf from Wed night through Thu night.
Winds will diminish to fresh over the central and southern 
sections of the Gulf on Fri. Strong gap winds will begin in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed through Fri, and possibly reach near 
gale- force Wed night through Thu night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR 

Overnight ASCAT data depicts mostly gentle winds over the 
offshore waters, with moderate southerly winds noted off the 
coast of southern Colombia and Ecuador. Seas over these waters 
are generally 4-6 ft due to a south to southwest swell. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted along the immediate 
coastlines of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.

For the forecast, long-period south to southwest swell will 
subside slightly through tonight. By Thu, new southerly swell is
expected to slightly raise seas offshore the Galapagos Islands
and offshore Ecuador. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will 
continue over the entire through mid- week. Winds could pulse to 
moderate to fresh off Papagayo early Wed, and fresh to locally 
strong Wed night into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure extends southeastward across the area. The 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in vicinity
of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh to strong northeast trades from
10N to 28N and west of about 125W. Over the open waters, light 
to gentle southeast to south winds are present to the south of 
the ITCZ. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southwesterly winds are
noted south of the monsoon trough. A set of northwest swell, 
with seas of 8-10 ft, continues to propagate through the waters 
N of 19N.

For the forecast, with the strong high pressure over the area,
fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds W of 125W will
prevail through this afternoon. The gradient will slacken enough
later today, which will diminish winds to fresh by tonight. 
Long- period northwest swell will continue to support seas of 
8-10 ft north of about 19N today. Northwest swell will linger N 
of 21N and E of 122W through Tue night. 

A cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then 
push southward across the area through late on Wed. Behind the
front, high pressure will build across the area once again. As a
result, a large area of fresh to strong north to northeast winds
are expected along with building seas to around 10 ft N of 10N. 
Winds will begin to diminish by Fri into Sat. Seas will slowly 
subside through the weekend. 

$$
AReinhart