000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Panama and southern Costa Rica
near 09N83W to a 1008 mb low near 11N96W to a 1010 mb low near
09N114W to 07N124W. The ITCZ extends from 07N124W to 08N133W to
beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
from 06N to 13N between 96W and 102W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 104W
and 117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Earlier ASCAT data passes showed fresh to strong northwest winds
offshore Baja California Norte and moderate to fresh northwest 
winds offshore Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong south to 
southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California with 
gentle to moderate winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle winds are 
elsewhere. Seas 9-13 ft are noted NE of Baja California Norte, 
with seas of 7-10 ft in long- period swell are west of Baja 
California Sur. In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-5 ft in the
northern Gulf of California, and 3-4 ft over the rest of the 
Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft at the entrance to the Gulf due to NW swell
mixing with a south swell component. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a 
south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the 
Guatemala border.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds off Baja California
Norte will diminish slightly on Mon with fresh winds west of 
Baja California. Fresh to strong winds will return along the 
coast of Baja California on Tue in the wake of a cold front. 
These winds will spread southward offshore Baja California Sur 
and continue through Thu. The swell will slightly subside north 
of Punta Eugenia by Mon, but return by Wed with the strong winds.
The strong winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
diminish to fresh late tonight. Fresh to strong winds northwest 
will surge through Gulf Wed night through Thu night, then as 
fresh over the central and southern sections of the Gulf on Fri. 
Strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
beginning Wed, possibly reaching near gale- force Wed night 
through Thu night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR 

Earlier ASCAT data pass showed mostly gentle winds over the 
offshore waters, with moderate to locally fresh south winds noted
off the coast of Ecuador. Seas over these waters are generally 
4-6 ft due to a south to southwest swell. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama,
and Colombia. 

For the forecast, long-period south to southwest swell will 
subside slightly through Mon night. By Thu, new southerly swell 
is expected to slightly raise seas offshore the Galapagos 
Islands. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will 
continue to be moderate to locally fresh through tonight. 
Otherwise, generally gentle winds will continue over the entire 
through mid-week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo 
early on Wed, and to fresh early on Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure continues to build southeastward across the
area. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure
in vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh to strong northeast
trades from 16N to 28N and west of about 130W. Light to gentle 
southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough over the open waters. Mainly gentle southeast 
winds are south of the ITCZ, and gentle to moderate south to 
southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. A set of 
northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft is propagating through the 
waters N of 20N.

For the forecast, fresh to strong north to northeast winds will 
spread southward over the area NW of Baja California Norte  
through tonight. Long- period northwest swell will continue to 
support seas of 8-10 ft north of about 19N through Mon night. As
the strong high pressure over the area builds southeastward 
through tonight, this will continue the tightening of the 
gradient in the western part of area. The northeast to east trade
winds will increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N 
west of 132W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow 
for these winds to diminish back to fresh.

A cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then 
push southward across the area through late on Wed. A large area
of fresh to strong north to northeast winds along with building 
seas to around 10 ft is expected behind the front across much of 
the area north of about 10N.

$$
AReinhart