000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082216 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 08 2022 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia westward to across northern Panama and southern Costa Rica, northwestward to 12N91W and westward to low pressure near 11N95W 1009 mb and to 11N105W to low pressure near 10N113W 1012 mb and southwestward to 07N122W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 270 nm south of the trough between 92W-100W, and also from 05N to 09N between 104W-109W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 110W-112W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 91W-92W, within 120 nm north of the trough and the 1009 mb low between 95W-97W and within 60 nm of the trough between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 09N between 89W-91W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Latest ASCAT data passes show moderate to fresh northwest northwest winds offshore Baja California Sur and fresh to strong northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas of 7-11 ft in long-period swell are west of Baja California Sur, while much higher seas of 9-14 ft north of Baja California Norte In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-6 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 3-4 ft over the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf due to NW swell mixing with a south swell component. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the waters well to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte, while mainly fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Sur. The fresh to strong winds will diminish slightly on Mon, while the fresh winds west of Baja California continue. Fresh to strong winds will return along the coast of Baja California on Tue in the wake of a cold front. These winds will spread southward offshore Baja California Sur and continue through Thu. A pulse of reinforcing long-period northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California is peaking seas there to 14 ft. The swell will subside north of Punta Eugenia Mon. Winds over he northern Gulf of California will increase to strong tonight, then diminish to fresh late tonight. Fresh to strong winds northwest will surge through Gulf Wed night through Thu night, then as fresh over the central and southern sections of the Gulf on Fri. Strong gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Wed, possibly reaching near gale-force Wed night through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR ASCAT data passes show mostly gentle winds over the offshore waters, with moderate to locally fresh south winds noted off the coast of Ecuador. Seas over these waters are generally 4-6 ft due to a south to southwest swell, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft offshore Colombia and Ecuador. Large clusters of numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident in satellite imagery over the waters well to the southwest of Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Nicaragua/northern Costa Rica. This activity is being sustained by upper-level diffluence that is present over that part of the eastern Pacific. For the forecast, long-period south to southwest swell will subside slightly through Mon night. By Thu, new southerly swell is expected to raise seas a little offshore the Galapagos Islands. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will continue to be moderate to locally fresh through tonight. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will continue over the entire through mid-week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo early on Wed, and to fresh early on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure continues to build southeastward across the area. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh to locally strong northeast trades from 16N to 28N and west of about 130W as noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters. Mainly gentle southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, and gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough. A set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft is propagating through the northern and central waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong north to northeast winds will spread southward over the northeast waters through tonight. Long- period northwest swell will continue to support seas of 8-10 ft north of about 19N through Mon. As the strong high pressure over the area builds southeastward through tonight, this will continue the tightening of the gradient in the western part of area. The northeast to east trade winds will increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N west of 132W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow for these winds to diminish back to fresh. A cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through late on Wed. A large area of fresh to strong north to northeast winds along with building seas to around 10 ft is expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ Aguirre