000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 08 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia southwestward to 07N81W, then northwestward to 11N90W to 10N106W and to 09N115W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 08N127W to 07N134W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 94W-97W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 91W-94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 96W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 104W-111W, also within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 120W-125W, and within 30 nm north of the trough between 92W-94W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Overnight ASCAT data showed moderate to fresh northwest winds off the western Baja California Peninsula. Fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft in long-period swell are west of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, seas are 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California near the fresh winds, with seas of 3 ft or less across the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft in primarily from northwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident in satellite imagery over the waters well to the south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, winds west of Baja California Norte will increase fresh to strong today, then diminish slightly to fresh by Mon. Fresh to strong winds will return along the coast on Tue with the passage of a cold front, with the strong winds expanding southward across Baja California Sur and will continue through Thu. A pulse of long-period northwest swell will reinforce northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California today and tonight, with seas peaking around 13 ft west of Baja California Norte. The swell will subside to 8-9 ft Mon through Tue. Winds across the northern section of the Gulf of California will increase to strong tonight, then diminish to fresh late Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will return to the Gulf later in the week. Strong to near gale-force winds gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Overnight ASCAT data depicted mostly gentle winds prevailing over the offshore waters, with moderate to locally fresh south winds noted off the coast of Ecuador. Seas are 5-6 ft off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long- period south to southwest swell has begin to subside. Seas are 5-6 ft from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Large clusters of numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident in satellite imagery over the waters well to the southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador. Thus activity is being sustained by upper-level diffluence that is present over that part of the eastern Pacific. For the forecast, the long-period south to southwest swell will subside slightly through Mon night. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will continue to be moderate to locally fresh through tonight. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire through mid-week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning on Wed and to fresh early on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure continues to build southeastward across the area. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ and west of about 130W. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Residual long period northwest swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most of the basin, although south to southwest swell is occurring over southern and southeastern portions of the area. A set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft continues migrating southward across the far northwest and north-central waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will spread southward over the northeast waters through tonight. Long- period northwest swell will build seas of 8-11 ft north of 20N through Mon. As the strong high pressure over the area builds southeastward through tonight, this will continue the tightening of the gradient in the western part of area. The northeast to east trade winds will increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N west of 132W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow for these winds to diminish back to fresh. A cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through mid-week. A large area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ Aguirre