000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080905 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to Panama and southern Costa Rica near 08N83W to 11N94W to 10N112W to 07N119W. The ITCZ extends from 07N119W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 120W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 92W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh northwest winds off the western Baja California Peninsula. Fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft in long- period swell are west of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, seas are 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California near the fresh winds, with seas of 3 ft or less across the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft in primarily from northwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. For the forecast, winds west of Baja California Norte will increase fresh to strong today, then diminish slightly to fresh by Mon. Fresh to strong winds will return along the coast on Tue with the passage of a cold front, with the strong winds expanding southward across Baja California Sur and will continue through Thu. A pulse of long- period northwest swell will reinforce northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California today and tonight, with seas peaking around 13 ft west of Baja California Norte. The swell will subside to 8-9 ft Mon through Tue. Winds across the northern section of the Gulf of California will increase to strong tonight, then diminish to fresh late Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will return to the Gulf later in the week. Strong to near gale- force winds gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR ASCAT satellite data depicts mostly gentle winds prevailing over the offshore waters, with moderate to locally fresh south winds noted off the coast of Ecuador. Seas are 5-6 ft off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long- period south to southwest swell has begin to subside. Seas are 5-6 ft from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Thunderstorms continue off the Costa Rica coast, in addition to southern Colombia. For the forecast, the long-period south to southwest swell will subside slightly through Mon night. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will continue to be moderate to locally fresh through tonight. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire through mid- week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning on Wed and to fresh early on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure continues to build southeastward across the area. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ and west of about 130W. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Residual long period northwest swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most of the basin, although south to southwest swell is occurring over southern and southeastern portions of the area. A set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft continues migrating southward across the far northwest and north-central waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will spread southward over the northeast waters through tonight. Long- period northwest swell will build seas of 8-11 ft north of 20N through Mon. As the strong high pressure over the area builds southeastward through tonight, this will continue the tightening of the gradient in the western part of area. The northeast to east trade winds will increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N west of 130W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow for these winds to diminish back to fresh. A cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through mid-week. A large area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ AReinhart