183 AXPZ20 KNHC 080312 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to across Panama and southern Costa Rica near 08N81W to 10N100W to 07N119W. The ITCZ extends from 07N119W to 07N131W to 06N140W. Numerous moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ between 123W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 07N to 13N between 93W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California with light to gentle winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft in long- period swell are west of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, seas of 3 ft or less are noted with the exception of 4-6 ft seas primarily from northwest swell over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf. Seas of 6-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. For the forecast, winds west of Baja California will increase to fresh to strong Sun through Sun night, then diminish slightly to fresh Mon through Tue. Moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur will change little through Tue. A pulse of long- period northwest swell will reinforce northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California Sun and Sun night, with seas peaking around 13 ft west of Baja California Norte. The swell will subside Mon through Tue. Another cold front will quickly move southward across the offshore waters west of northern and central Baja California late Tue afternoon and Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany the front. Fresh south to southwest winds in the northern section of the Gulf of California will increase to strong Sun night, then diminish to fresh late Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Earlier ASCAT satellite data depicts mostly gentle winds prevailing over the offshore waters, with locally moderate south winds noted to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long- period south to southwest swell has begin to subside. Seas are still 6-7 ft from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Thunderstorms are noted off the Costa Rica coast, in addition to southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. For the forecast, the long-period south to southwest swell will subside slightly through Mon night. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia increase to moderate southerly tonight through Sun night. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire through mid-week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning on Wed and to fresh early on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure continues to build southeastward across the area. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ and west of about 125W. Moderate southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Residual long period northwest swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most of the basin, although south to southwest swell is occurring over southern and southeastern portions of the area. A set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft has entered the far northwest and north-central waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will spread southward over the northeast waters Sun and Sun night. Long- period northwest swell will build seas of 8-11 ft north of 20N through Mon. As the strong high pressure over the area builds southeastward through Sun night, this will continue the tightening of the gradient in the western part of area. The northeast to east trade winds will increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N west of 134W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow for these winds to diminish back to fresh. A second cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through mid-week. A large area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ AReinhart