000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia to across Panama and southern Costa Rica, and continues westward to 09N84W to 09N93W to 10N102W to 08N114W and to 08N115W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 128W-134W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the trough from 04N to 07N between 85W-90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft in long- period swell are west of Baja California. Seas of 6-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell are elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft primarily from northwest swell over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California will increase to fresh to strong Sun afternoon through Sun night west of Baja California, then diminish slightly to fresh Mon through Tue, while the moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur will change little through Tue. A pulse of long- period northwest swell will reinforce the present northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California Sun and Sun night leading to seas building to a peak of around 13 ft west of Baja California Norte. The swell will subside Mon through Tue. Another cold front will quickly move southward across the offshore waters west of northern and central Baja California late Tue afternoon and Tue evening followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas. Fresh south to southwest winds in the northern section of the Gulf of California will increase to strong Sun night, then diminish to fresh late Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Latest ASCAT satellite data depicts mostly gentle winds prevailing over the offshore waters, with locally moderate south winds noted to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long- period south to southwest swell has begin to subside. Seas are still 6-7 ft from Nicaragua to Guatemala. For the forecast, the long-period south to southwest swell will subside slightly through Mon night. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will increase to moderate southerly late today through Sun night. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire through mid-week. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning on Wed and to fresh early on Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A weakening cold front extends from a 1012 mb low that is north of the area just inland southern California south-southwest to 30N120W and continues as a dissipating cold front to near 29N125W. Rather strong high pressure building southeastward is overtaking the front. The gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ and west of about 129W. Moderate southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Residual long period northwest swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most of the basin, although south to southwest swell is occurring over southern and southeastern portions of the area. A set of northwest swell, with seas of 8-10 ft has entered the far northwest and north-central waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue dissipate west of 120W, while the portion east of 120W reaches from near 31N115W to 27N120W by this evening and begins to weaken. Fresh to strong northeast winds will surge southward over the will follow this feature as it advances southward over the northeast waters Sun and Sun night along with long-period northwest swell that is expected to build seas to the range of 8-11 ft north of 20N through Mon. As the strong high pressure over the area continues to build southeastward through Sun night, this will allow for a tightening of the gradient in the western part of area allowing for the northeast trades to increase to fresh to strong roughly from 20N to 26N west of 134W. The gradient will slacken enough on Mon to allow for these winds to diminish back to fresh. A second cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through mid-week. A large area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ Aguirre