000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia southwestward to 07N80W, and northwestward to 11N90W. It continues westward to 11N100W to 10N108W and to 09N115W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N126W and to 08N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 133W-135W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 129W- 133W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 127W-129W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 84W-86W, and well to the south of the trough from 04N to 07N between 84W-90W and within 30 nm of 08N93W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds are occurring W of Baja California Norte, while mainly moderate winds prevail west of Baja California Sur, as well as off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate S winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 8-9 ft prevail west of Baja California in long-period northwest swell. Seas of 6-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell prevail elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 5-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, northwest winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh today as a weak cold front approaches. Behind the front, winds west of Baja California Norte will increase to fresh to strong Sun afternoon through Sun night before diminishing slightly to fresh Mon through early Tue. Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California this evening and persist through Sun night. These winds could be locally strong in the northern Gulf this evening. Long-period northwest swell west of Baja California will begin to subside this evening, but will quickly be reinforced Sun into Mon behind the front. Seas of 11-13 ft will build over the waters west of Baja California Norte Sun as winds increase over these waters. Looking ahead, a second cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Tue. Strong high pressure will build behind the front, producing a large area of strong north winds and building seas west of Baja California Tue night through Wed night. Meanwhile, fresh to strong north winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Overnight ASCAT satellite data depicted mostly gentle winds prevailing over the offshore waters, with locally moderate south winds noted to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long- period south to southwest swell has begin to subside. Seas are still 6-7 ft from Nicaragua to Guatemala. For the forecast, the long-period south to southwest swell will begin to subside across the area today. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will increase to moderate southerly late today through Sun night. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire area through Tue. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A cold front has moved into the area. It extends from near 30N124W to 29N130W and to 28N140W. Higher pressures is present on both sides of this weak cold front. The gradient between the higher pressure to the north and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast trades from the ITCZ to 25N and west of about 134W. However, the area of fresh trades is shrinking as the front approaches. Moderate southeast to south winds are present to the south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Residual long-period northwest swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most of the basin, although south to southwest swell is occurring over southern and southeastern portions of the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front that extends from near 30N124W to 29N130W and to 28N140W will reach from near 31N115W to 27N120W, and begin to dissipate to 26N140W by this evening. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will follow this feature as it advances southward reaching near 20N by Sun night before dissipating. The front will usher in another pulse of long-period northwest swell that is expected to build seas to 8-11 ft north of 20N late today through Mon. A second cold front is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward across the area through mid- week. A large area of fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front across much of the area north of about 10N. $$ Aguirre