942 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070929
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N79W
to the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N92W to 07N118W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N118W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N
to 12N between 83W and 87W, and from 06N to 16N between 92W and 
109W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 03N to 07N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are occurring W of Baja
California Norte, while mainly moderate winds prevail west of
Baja California Sur, as well as off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to 
moderate S winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle
wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 8-9 ft prevail west of
Baja California in long-period NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft due to 
a south to southwest swell prevail elsewhere from Manzanillo to 
the Guatemala border. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of 
California, except for higher seas of 5-6 ft in mixed southwest 
and northwest swell over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf 
of California.

For the forecast, NW winds west of Baja California will increase
to moderate to fresh today as a weak cold front approaches.
Behind the front, winds west of Baja California Norte will
increase to fresh to strong Sun afternoon through Sun night 
before diminishing slightly to fresh Mon through early Tue. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds will develop in portions of the 
central and northern Gulf of California this evening and persist 
through Sun night. These winds could be locally strong in the 
northern Gulf this evening. Long-period northwest swell west of 
Baja California will begin to subside this evening, but will 
quickly be reinforced Sun into Mon behind the front. Seas of 
11-13 ft will build over the waters west of Baja California Norte
Sun as winds increase over these waters. Looking ahead, a second
cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late 
Tue. Strong high pressure will build behind the front, producing 
a large area of strong N winds and building seas west of Baja 
California Tue night through Wed night. Meanwhile, fresh to 
strong N winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the 
middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The latest ASCAT satellite data shows mostly gentle winds
prevailing over the offshore waters, with locally moderate S 
winds noted to the east of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-6 ft
off South America, Panama and Costa Rica, as the long period S to
SW swell has begin to subside. Seas are still 6-7 ft from
Nicaragua to Guatemala.

For the forecast, long period S to SW swell will begin to subside
across the area today. Winds offshore Ecuador and southern 
Colombia will increase to moderate southerly late today through 
Sun night. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over 
the entire area through Tue. Winds could pulse to moderate off 
Papagayo beginning Wed. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A cold front is entering the area, and extends from 30N136W to
29.5N140W. Higher pressures prevail on both sides of this weak 
cold front. The gradient between the higher pressure to the north
and lower pressures near the ITCZ is maintaining fresh northeast
trades from the ITCZ to 25N and west of about 134W. However, the
area of fresh trades is shrinking as the front approaches. 
Moderate SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough 
over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. 
Residual long period NW swell, with seas of 7-9 ft, covers most 
of the basin, although S to SW swell is occurring over southern 
and southeastern portions of the area.

For the forecast, the cold front that extends from 30N136W to
29.5N140W will extend from 31N116W to 27N120W to 26N140W by this 
evening. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will follow 
this feature as it advances southward reaching near 20N by Sun 
night before dissipating. The front will usher in another pulse 
of long-period northwest swell that is expected to build seas to
8-11 ft north of 20N late today through Mon. A second cold front
is forecast to enter the area by early Tue, then push southward 
across the area through mid-week. A large area of fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected behind the front across 
much of the area north of 10N. 

$$
Hagen