000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 10N92W to 10N108W to 07N118W. The ITCZ continues from 07N118W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 93W and 115W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03.5N to 08N between 133W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure ridging over the area is controlling the weather regime. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for moderate NW winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. Mainly gentle northwest winds prevail elsewehre offshore Mexico. Long-period northwest swell is producing seas of 7-9 ft over the waters west of Baja California. Seas of 6-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell prevail elsewhere from Manzanillo to the Guatemala border. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 5-6 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh Sat as a weak cold front approaches. Winds west of Baja California Norte will then increase to fresh to strong from Sun afternoon into early next week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat evening and persist through Sun night. These winds could be locally strong in the northern Gulf Sat evening. The long-period northwest swell west of Baja California will begin to subside on Sat evening, but will quickly be reinforced Sun into Mon behind the front. Seas of 11-13 ft will build over the waters west of Baja California Norte Sun as winds increase over these waters. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle winds prevail over most of the offshore waters of Central America and South America. Seas of 5-7 ft in a south to southwest swell prevail over these waters. For the forecast, winds offshore Ecuador and southern Colombia will increase to moderate southerly late Sat through Sun night. Otherwise, generally gentle winds will prevail over the entire area through Tue. Winds could pulse to moderate off Papagayo beginning Wed. Long period S to SW swell will begin to subside across the area Sat afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to 30N129W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ continues to maintain fresh northeast trades from the ITCZ to 26N and west of about 127W. Moderate SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 7-9 ft in long- period northwest swell are present to the northwest of a line from 15N107W to 01N135W to 01N140W. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the area from the north early Sat and extend from 30N115W to 26N140W by Sat evening. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will follow this feature as it advances southward reaching near 20N by Sun night before dissipating. The front will usher in another pulse of long- period northwest swell that is expected to build seas to 8-11 ft north of 20N. $$ Hagen