000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062158
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 06 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to Panama,
then southern Costa Rica and continues to 10N95W to 12N106W and 
to 09N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 07N124W to 06N130W and to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of the 
ITCZ west of 139W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 
136W-139W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 270 nm south of the trough between 100W-105W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm north of 
the trough between 96W-102W, also within 60 nm north of the 
trough between 91W-94W and within 60 nm north of the between 
102W-106W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure ridging over the area is controlling the weather
regime over these waters. The associated pressure is allowing for 
gentle to moderate northwest winds to exist west of the Baja 
California Peninsula. Mainly gentle northwest winds prevail 
elsewehre offshore Mexico. Long-period northwest swell is
producing seas of 6-9 ft is over the waters west of Baja 
California. Seas of 5-7 ft due to a south to southwest swell
elsewhere south and southwest of mainland Mexico. Seas of 
3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for 
higher seas of 5-7 ft in mixed southwest and northwest swell
over waters at the entrance to the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northwest to north 
winds will continue across the Mexican offshore waters through 
Sun. Winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to 
fresh Sat as a weak cold front approaches. Winds west of Baja 
California Norte will increase to fresh to strong Sun night into 
Mon. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will develop in portions 
of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat evening. The 
long-period northwest swell west of Baja will begin to subside on
Sat evening. Seas of 12-14 ft will build over the waters west of
Baja California Norte Sun as winds increase over these waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to locally moderate winds are north of the monsoon 
trough, while gentle to moderate southwest winds are south of the
monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft in a south to southwest swell are
noted by latest altimeter data over these waters. A weak area
of low pressure appears to forming near 11N93W per latest 
satellite visible imagery. Increasing convection noted with 
this feature is described above under the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough 
section. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over 
the forecast waters.

For the forecast, mainly light and variable winds offshore 
Panama will become gentle southwest to west winds Sat night and 
change little through Mon. Gentle southwest winds offshore 
Colombia will continue into tonight, then increase slight to 
moderate Sat through Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
will prevail through at least early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to near 26N118W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ continues to maintain fresh northeast 
trades from the ITCZ to 26N and west of about 125W. Moderate 
southerly winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the
open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 
7-9 ft in long-period northwest swell are present to the 
northwest of a line from 15N110W to 10N120W and to 05N140W. 
A recent ASCAT pass detected these values. The swell is mixing 
with a southerly component west of 120W. South to southwest long-
period swell is elsewhere over this part of the area.

For the forecast, conditions will remain fairly similar through 
Sat evening, at which time a weak cold front will approach from 
the north. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will follow 
this feature as it advances southward reaching near 20N by Sun 
night while weakening. The front will usher in another pulse of 
long-period northwest swell that is expected to build seas to 
8-10 ft north of 20N.

$$
Aguirre