881 
AXPZ20 KNHC 061916 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 06 2022

Corrected Ofshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 11N105W
to 10N113W. The ITCZ extends from 10N113W to 05.5N130W to 
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 270 nm south of the trough between 98W-105W, also within 
90 nm N of the trough between 97W-101W and within 60 nm north of
the trough between 101W-106W. Similar activity is within 60 nm N
of the ITCZ W of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted well offshore of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to southern Mexico.
Northwesterly winds are gentle to moderate west of the Baja
Peninsula. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewehre off Mexico. 
Long period swell of 6 to 8 ft dominates the waters west of Baja 
California. Seas of 5-7 ft in mainly SW swell prevail south of 
Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
the Mexican offshore waters through today. Winds west of Baja 
California will increase to moderate to fresh Saturday as a weak 
cold front approaches. These winds will continue increasing, 
becoming fresh to strong by Sunday night. Moderate to fresh SW 
winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf 
of California Sat evening. Long period NW swell west of Baja 
will continue to propagate south before beginning to abate Sat 
evening. 12-14 ft seas will build west of Baja California Norte 
Sunday as the winds increase.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered thunderstorms are noted currently within 60 nm of the 
coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala. Outside of these thunderstorms,
Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate SW winds are south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the offshore waters in S-SW 
swell.

For the forecast, moderate SW winds offshore Colombia and Panama
will diminish to gentle tonight. Favorable upper-level 
conditions should maintain active convection across the area 
through this evening. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will 
prevail through at least early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to southern Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades from the ITCZ
to 24N, and west of 130W. Moderate southerly winds are south of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. A recent altimeter pass shows seas of
7-9 ft dominate the area, with NW swell in the northern half of 
the area and SW swell in the southern half.

For the forecast, conditions will remain fairly similar through 
Sat evening, at which time a weak cold front will approach from 
the north. fresh to strong northerly winds will follow this 
feature as it propagates south, reaching 20N by late Sun.

$$
FLYNN/Aguirre