000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060908
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N105W
to 08N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to 05.5N130W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 14N between 77W and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted well offshore of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to 29N130W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. An overnight ASCAT pass shows moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds to the west of Baja California. The 
satellite data also show light and variable winds in the Gulf of 
California. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico. 
Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell dominate the waters west of Baja 
California. Seas of 5-7 ft in mainly SW swell prevail south of 
Cabo Corrientes, confirmed by a satellite altimeter pass from 
06/0430 UTC. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California 
north of the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Mexican offshore waters through today. Winds west of Baja 
California will increase to moderate to fresh tonight as the 
pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north 
of Cabo San Lazaro Sun night, and continuing through Tue night.
Moderate to fresh with locally strong W-SW winds will develop in
portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat 
evening as a weakening cold front reaches northern Baja 
California. These moderate to fresh winds will persist into early
Mon. Meanwhile, NW swell will increase slightly today west of
Baja California, and will linger west of 110W into Sat. New and 
larger NW swell is forecast to enter the waters west of Baja 
California by early Sun and persist through the early part of the
week. From Manzanillo to the Guatemala border, gentle winds will
prevail through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered thunderstorms are noted currently within 60 nm of the 
coast from Costa Rica to El Salvador. Gentle winds prevail north 
of the monsoon trough, except for the coast of Nicaragua, where 
moderate SE winds are likely occurring. Moderate to locally fresh
SW winds are south of the monsoon trough offshore Panama and 
Colombia. Gentle winds are present offshore Ecuador. Seas of 5 to
7 ft dominate the offshore waters in S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore
Colombia and Panama will diminish to moderate later this morning,
and to gentle tonight. Favorable upper-level conditions should 
maintain active convection across the area through this evening. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through at least
early next week. Long period S-SW swell offshore South America 
and Central America will persist through today before decaying.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extends from 29N140W to 29N130W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridging
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining
fresh NE trades from the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 130W, as noted
in recent ASCAT satellite data. The ASCAT data also show moderate
southerly winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the 
open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A recent
altimeter pass from 06/0630 UTC shows seas of 8 to 10 ft in 
reinforcing NW swell covering the waters north of 11N and west of
130W. These 8-10 ft seas extend eastward to 120W over the
northern half of the area. Seas of 8 ft in S-SW swell cover the 
south-central waters, south of 13N between 95W and 120W. Seas of 
6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
north of the ITCZ and west of 125W through tonight. Gentle to 
moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Long-period NW swell mentioned in the paragraph 
above will spread southeastward across much of the area through 
today. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central 
waters will subside by this afternoon. Active convection along 
the monsoon trough east of 125W will continue through tonight
while upper-level conditions remain favorable. New NW-N swell 
will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with a 
weakening cold front expected to move into the northern waters 
over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in 
the wake of the boundary early next week helping to increase 
winds.

$$
Hagen