000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060325
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0210 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to
10N107W. The ITCZ extends from 10N107W to 07N122W to 06N130W to 
06N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 09N between 77W and 88W and from 06N to 13.5N between
92W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
occurring from 05N to 14N between 105W and 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Some haze is possible offshore southern and southwestern Mexico
due to ongoing agricultural fires, although the visibility has
improved for some areas over the past 6 hours. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region.

High pressure of 1026 mb located around 720 nm northeast of 
Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California, while light
and variable winds are in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere off Mexico, except for moderate NW winds 
from Cabo Corrientes to Manzanillo. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell
dominate the waters west of Baja California. Seas of 5-7 ft in 
mainly SW swell prevail south of Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 3 ft or
less are in the Gulf of California north of the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Mexican offshore waters through the end of the week. Winds 
west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this 
weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to
strong north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon and Mon night, continuing 
through Tue night. Moderate to fresh with locally strong W-SW 
winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf 
of California Sat night as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N
and 31N, persisting into early Mon. Meanwhile, NW swell will 
linger west of 110W, reinforcing and building some for the end of
the week into the weekend. New and larger NW swell is forecast 
to enter the waters west of Baja California by the end of the 
weekend into early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle winds continue north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
fresh SW winds are south of the monsoon trough offshore Panama
and Colombia, where scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring. Scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms are also occurring from 170-250 nm offshore 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle to moderate winds are present 
offshore Ecuador. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the offshore waters 
in S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds from the 
equator northward to the coast of western Panama will diminish to
gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia and Panama by 
early Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level
conditions to maintain active convection across the area through
Fri evening. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
through at least early next week. Long period S-SW swell offshore
South America and Central America will persist through Fri 
before decaying.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1026 mb located around 720 nm northeast of 
Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge through 29N140W to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridging 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining 
primarily moderate trades across the waters north of the ITCZ 
west of 115W, locally fresh west of 130W and south of 22N. 
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in reinforcing NW swell cover the 
waters northwest of a line from 06N140W to 30N118W, while seas of
8 to 9 ft in S-SW swell cover the south-central waters, south of
12N between 97W and 122W. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail 
north of the ITCZ and west of 125W through Fri night. Gentle to 
moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Long-period NW swell mentioned in the paragraph
above will spread southeastward across much of the area through 
Fri. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central waters
will subside by Fri afternoon. Active convection along the 
monsoon trough east of 125W will continue through at least Fri 
night as upper level conditions remain favorable. New NW-N swell 
will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with a
dying cold front expected to move into the northern waters over 
the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in the 
wake of the boundary early next week helping to increase winds.

$$
Hagen