000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052106 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N75W to across western Panama and Costa Rica to 10N87W to 12N101W to 11N107W. The ITCZ extends from 11N107W to 06N120W to 06N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 77W and 88W, from 05N to 15N between 91W and 102W, within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 104W and 120W, from 04N to 07N between 120W and 128W, and from 05N to 09N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Afternoon high resolution visible satellite imagery as well as coastal observing sites continue to report haze and some reduction to visibility offshore southern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to ongoing agricultural fires. Meanwhile low clouds and fog that was hugging the coast of Baja California and near Cabo Corrientes has thinned and pushed offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Tehuantepec region. High pressure of 1026 mb located around 750 nm northeast of Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough is analyzed across the central and southern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features has weakened some since yesterday, and gentle to moderate winds now prevail across the offshore waters, except light and variable in the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell dominate the waters, locally to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte, except mainly SW swell south of Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California north of the entrance. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Mexican offshore waters through the end of the week. Winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon and Mon night, continuing through Tue night. Moderate to fresh W-SW winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat night as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 31N, persisting into early Mon. Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing and building some for the end of the week into the weekend. New and larger NW swell is forecast to enter the regional waters by the end of the weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across Pacific coastal sections of northern South America and Central America. Gentle to moderate offshore winds continue north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are south of the monsoon trough from the coast of western Panama to Ecuador at the equator, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere offshore Ecuador. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the offshore waters in S-SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds from the equator northward to the coast of western Panama will diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia and Panama by early Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through at least early next week. Long period S-SW swell offshore South America and Central America will persist through Fri before decaying. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1026 mb located around 750 nm northeast of Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge through 28N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining primarily moderate trades across the waters north of the ITCZ west of 110W, locally fresh. Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough over the open waters, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in reinforcing NW swell covers the northwestern waters, while seas of 8 to 9 ft in S-SW swell covers the south-central waters. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the remainder of the work week. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Long-period NW swell over the northwestern waters will spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central waters will linger through tonight before subsiding through the end of the week. Active convection along the monsoon trough east of 125W will continue through at least Fri night as upper level conditions remain favorable. New NW-N swell will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an ill-defined or dying cold front expected to move into the northern waters over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in the wake of the old boundary early next week helping to increase winds. $$ Lewitsky