808 AXPZ20 KNHC 051459 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1410 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N75W to across Costa Rica to 10N90W to 12N100W to 11N107W. The ITCZ extends from 11N107W to 06N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 86W, from 06N to 15N between 86W and 101W, from 05N to 13N between 104W and 119W, and from 05N to 09N between 136W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Early morning high resolution visible satellite imagery as well as coastal observing sites continue to report haze and some reduction to visibility offshore southern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to ongoing agricultural fires. Meanwhile fog is seen hugging much of the coast of Baja California except between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Similar fog is noted near and north of Cabo Corrientes. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the Tehuantepec region. High pressure of 1026 mb located around 660 nm northeast of Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge to across the Baja California waters. A surface trough is analyzed across the central and southern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features has weakened some since yesterday, and gentle to moderate winds now prevail across the offshore waters, except light and variable in the Gulf of California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell dominate the waters, locally to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte, except mainly SW swell south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Mexican offshore waters through the end of the week. Winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh W-SW winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat night as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 31N. Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing and building some for the end of the week into the weekend. New and larger NW swell is forecast to enter the regional waters by the end of the weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue across Pacific coastal sections of northern South America and Central America. Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds across the Papagayo Region and Offshore Nicaraguan waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in fading S-SW swell are immediately offshore of Central American, with 5 to 8 ft S-SW swell elsewhere. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail and extend south to the equator, except gentle to moderate near the Galapagos Islands, between 250 and 700 nm offshore Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds offshore of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually shift northward to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through tonight, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. Easterly gap winds in the Papagayo region and Offshore Nicaragua will pulse to moderate to fresh during the overnight and early morning hours through Fri morning. Long period S-SW swell offshore South America and Central America will persist through Fri before decaying. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1026 mb located around 660 nm northeast of Hilo, Hawaii extends a ridge through 29N140W to near 14N115W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining primarily moderate trades across the waters north of the ITCZ west of 110W, locally fresh near the ITCZ between 130W and 140W. Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the ITCZ with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in reinforcing NW swell covers the northwestern waters, while seas of 8 to 9 ft in S-SW swell covers the south-central waters. Seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the remainder of the work week. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. New long-period NW swell is entering the area from the northwest, and will spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central waters will linger through today before gradually subsiding tonight. Active convection along the monsoon trough east of 120W will continue through Fri night as upper level conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, new NW-N swell will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined cold front expected to move into the northern waters over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in the wake of the old boundary early next week helping to increase winds. $$ Lewitsky