728 AXPZ20 KNHC 050914 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10.5N74.5W to 09N80W to 11.5N89W to 12N104W TO 07.5N117W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N117W to 06N125W to 07.5N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 13.5N between 78W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 104W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Evening haze and some reduction to visibility reported across coastal sites and offshore of southern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to ongoing agricultural fires has improved overnight, and only Acapulco is presently reporting visibility less than 6 miles. Meanwhile high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge SE into the offshore waters to near 16N110W. The associated pressure gradient offshore of Baja California has weakened and is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja, with a small area of fresh to strong NW to W winds noted along the tip of the peninsula at Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 6 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja waters except 8 ft across the NW waters. Winds are variable across the Gulf of California at mostly 10 kt or less, with slight seas except 3 to 4 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate NW to W winds prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshore waters except for fresh winds parallel and within 90 nm of the coast near Cabo Corrientes and near Puerto Angel. Seas there are 5 to 6 ft. Active convection persist well offshore of Tehuantepec but remains south of 13N. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters through the end of the week, except locally fresh near Cabo San Lucas through early Thu. Winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north of Cabo San Lazaro Sun through Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh W-SW gap winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sat night and Sun as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 31N. Active convection occurring offshore from Guatemala to Nicaragua will shift westward into the waters south of Tehuantepec today. Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing and building some for the end of the week into the weekend. Larger new NW swell is forecast to move into the regional waters Sun into early next week, with seas expected to peak at 10-15 ft offshore of Baja Norte Sun evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue across Pacific coastal sections from Panama to Guatemala, and also extend southward and offshore to 04N to the south of Costa Rica and Panama, and southward to 08N elsewhere. This activity is expected to shift westward today. Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate to locally fresh offshore gap winds across the Papagayo and Nicaraguan waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in fading S-SW swell across these waters. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail and extend south to the equator, except gentle to moderate near the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in newer southerly swell across these waters, except to 8 ft between 03N and 07.5N, and in areas of deep convection. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds offshore of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually shift northward to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu night, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. Easterly gap winds off the Papagayo region and Nicaragua will pulse to moderate to fresh during the overnight and early morning hours through Fri morning. Long period S-SW swell is entering the area waters tonight and will reach the coastal waters off Central America by early this morning, then persist through Fri before decaying. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between 1026 mb high pressure located just northwest of the area near 29N146W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to locally fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ to about 26N and west of 130W. Moderate N-NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the open waters. Trade wind swell is mixing with fading NW swell to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft from 06N to 24N and west of 132W, while seas are also 7-9 ft in NW swell north of 20N between 118W and 132W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in S-SW swell are south of 12.5N between 97W and 125W. Seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. New long-period NW swell is entering the area from the northwest tonight, and will spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central waters will linger through tonight before gradually subsiding on Thu. Active convection along the monsoon trough east of 110W will continue through Fri night as upper level conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, new NW-N swell will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined cold front expected to move into the northern waters over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in the wake of the old boundary early next week helping to increase winds. $$ Stripling