000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N83W to 11N103W to 07N117W. The ITCZ extends from 07N117W to 06N124W to 07.5N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N E of 80W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 12N between 81W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Afternoon haze and some reduction to visibility reported across coastal sites and offshore of southern Mexico to across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to ongoing agricultural fires has improved in recent hours, and only Acapulco is presently reporting visibility less than 6 miles. Meanwhile high pressure located well NW of the area extends a ridge SE into the offshore waters to near 16N108W. The associated pressure gradient offshore of Baja California has weakened slightly during the day and is supporting moderate to locally fresh NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja, with a small area of strong NW to W winds noted along the tip of the peninsula at Cabo San Lucas. Seas are generally 6 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja waters except 8 ft across the NW waters. Winds are variable across the Gulf of California at mostly 10 kt or less, with slight seas except 3 to 4 ft across the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate NW to W winds prevail across the rest of the Mexican offshore waters except for fresh winds parallel and within 90 nm of the coast between Cabo Corrientes and the western Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas there are 5 to 6 ft. Active convection persist well offshore of Tehuantepec but remains south of 12N. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters through the end of the week, except locally fresh near Cabo San Lucas through early Thu. Winds west of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh W-SW winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of California Sun as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 31N. Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing and building some for the end of the week into the weekend. Larger new NW swell is forecast to move into the regional waters by the end of the weekend into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are occurring across Pacific coastal sections from Panama to eastern Guatemala, and also extend southward and offshore to 04.5N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring offshore of SW Colombia to the south of 05N. Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate offshore gap winds across the southern Nicaraguan waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in fading S-SW swell across these waters. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail and extend south to the equator, except gentle to moderate near the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in newer southerly swell across these waters, except to 8 ft between 02.5N and 06N, and in areas of deep convection. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds offshore of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually shift northward to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu night, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. Easterly gap winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate to fresh during the overnight and early morning hours through Fri morning. Long period S-SW swell offshore South America will reach the waters off Central America by early Thu, then persist through Fri before decaying. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between 1026 mb high pressure located just northwest of the area near 30N147W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to locally fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ to about 26N and west of 128W. Moderate N-NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the open waters. Trade wind swell is mixing with fading NW swell to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 24N and west of 135W, as well as north of 26N between 118W and 133W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in S-SW swell are south of 12N between 98W and 125W. Seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail north of the ITCZ through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. New long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest tonight, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell across the south-central waters will linger through tonight before gradually subsiding on Thu. Active convection along the monsoon trough east of 105W will continue through Fri night as upper level conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, new NW-N swell will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined cold front expected to move into the northeast waters over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the ITCZ in the wake of the old boundary early next week helping to increase winds. $$ Stripling