000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042012
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1910 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 09N76W
to 08N80W to 10N95W to 06N117W. The ITCZ extends from 06N117W to
07N136W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 82W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 15N93W to 08N88W to
09N85W to 06N82W to 03N86W to 01N94W to 12N97W to 15N93W, from 
11N to 13N between 88W and 90W, from 06N to 12N between 97W and 
106W, from 06N to 08N between 109W and 117W, from 04N to 07N 
between 129W and 133W, and from 06N to 09N between 136W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Early afternoon visible high resolution satellite imagery shows
that earlier stratus has thinned and pushed just offshore of the
coast of Baja California. Haze and some reduction to visibility 
is reported at sites offshore southern Mexico to across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec due to ongoing agricultural fires in portions of 
Central America and Mexico. Meanwhile scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms offshore of Guatemala and propagating 
into the waters offshore of Tehuantepec.

A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of California/
Arizona/Mexico across the Gulf of California. A ridge of high 
pressure extends across the remainder of the waters at the 
surface west of about 100W. Mainly moderate NW winds prevail west
of 105W, with locally fresh to strong winds near Cabo 
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere, except
light and variable in the Gulf of California. Seas of 6 to 9 ft 
in NW swell are north of Punta Eugenia and 6 to 7 ft south of
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft east of 110W, 
except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the 
entrance.
 
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters through the end of the week, except locally 
fresh near Cabo San Lucas through early Thu. Winds west of Baja 
California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend as the
pressure gradient tightens, increasing to fresh to strong north 
of Cabo San Lazaro Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh W-SW 
winds will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf 
of California Sun as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 
31N. Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing 
and building some for the end of the week into the weekend.
A much larger set of NW swell is possible by the end of the 
weekend into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are occurring offshore of
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms elsewhere offshore Central America.

Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the 
monsoon trough, except for moderate offshore gap winds across the
Papagayo and southern Nicaraguan waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in
old S-SW swell across these waters. South of the monsoon 
trough, moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail and extend south of 
the equator, except gentle to moderate near the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in newer southerly swell across these
waters, locally to 8 ft especially in areas of deep convection.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds offshore 
of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually shift northward to the 
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu night, then diminish 
to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This
is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to 
maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. 
Easterly gap winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua
will pulse to moderate to fresh during the overnight and early 
morning hours through Fri morning. Long period S-SW swell 
offshore South America will reach the waters off Central America 
by early Thu, then persist through Fri before decaying. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between 1026 mb high pressure located just
northwest of the area near 31N142W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to locally fresh 
northeast trades north of the ITCZ to about 21N and west of 
127W. Moderate N-NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and 
west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder 
of the open waters. Trade wind swell is mixing with fading NW 
swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft from 07N to 24N and west of 
135W, as well as north of 26N between 117W and 132W. Seas of 7 
to 9 ft in S-SW swell are south of 04N between 98W and 125W. 
Seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
north of the ITCZ through the week and into the weekend. Gentle
to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. New long-period NW swell will enter the area 
from the northwest tonight, then spread southeastward across 
much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell across
the south-central waters will linger through tonight before 
gradually subsiding on Thu. Active convection along the monsoon 
trough east of 105W will continue through Fri night as upper 
level conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, new NW-N swell 
will enter the northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an
ill defined cold front expected to move into the northeast 
waters over the weekend. High pressure will build north of the
ITCZ in the wake of the old boundary early next week helping to
increase winds.

$$
Lewitsky