000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia at 1008 mb
low pressure near 10N76W to 07N80W to 10N96W to 06N118W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N118W to 05N125W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W
and 80W, within 270 nm north of the monsoon trough between 82W
and 95W, and within 10N98W to 10N91W to 07N89W to 06N80W to
03N80W to 03N98W to 10N98W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough between
105W and 118W, from 05N to 06N between 128W and 132W, and from
07N to 10N between 133W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Early morning visible high resolution satellite imagery show low
clouds and fog along much of the coast and offshore of Baja
California to near Cabo Corrientes, as well as some fog north of
Cabo Corrientes along the coast, as is typical for this time of
year. Haze and some reduction to visibility is reported at sites
south of there across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to ongoing
agricultural fires in portions of Central America and Mexico.
Meanwhile a large complex of thunderstorms is offshore of
Guatemala and propagating into the waters offshore of
Tehuantepec.

A surface trough is analyzed from near the border of
California/Arizona/Mexico across the Gulf of California. A ridge
of high pressure extends across the remainder of the waters at
the surface west of about 100W. Mainly moderate NW winds prevail
west of 110W, with locally fresh winds near Cabo Corrientes.
Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail elsewhere, except southerly
in the Gulf of California. Seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW swell are
north of Punta Eugenia, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 ft or
less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance.
 
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters through the end of the week. Winds west of
Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this weekend
as the pressure gradient tightens. Moderate to fresh W-SW winds
will develop in portions of the central and northern Gulf of
California Sun as a NE to SW trough develops between 30N and 31N.
Meanwhile, NW swell will linger west of 110W, reinforcing and
building some for the end of the week into the weekend. A larger
set of NW swell is possible by the end of the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are occurring offshore of
Colombia and Panama, with additional clusters from the Papagayo
region northward. 

Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the 
monsoon trough, except for moderate offshore gap winds across the
Papagayo and southern Nicaraguan waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in
old S-SW swell across these waters. South of the monsoon 
trough, moderate to fresh S-SW winds prevail and extend south of 
the equator, except gentle to moderate near the Galapagos 
Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in newer southerly swell across these
waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds offshore 
of Colombia and Ecuador will gradually shift northward to the 
coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu night, then diminish 
to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This
is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to 
maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. 
Easterly gap winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua
will pulse to moderate to fresh during the overnight and early 
morning hours through Thu morning. New long-period S-SW swell 
offshore South America will reach the waters off Central America
by early Thu, then persist through Fri before decaying. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure located 
northwest of the area near 33N145W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast 
trades north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 124W. N-NE
winds moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the
open waters. Moderate fresh trade wind swell is mixing with
fading NW swell to produce seas of 7 to 10 ft from 07N to 24N and
west of 130W, as well as north of 26N between 118W and 131W. Seas
of 7 to 9 ft in S-SW swell are south of 02N between 100W and
130W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
north of the ITCZ through the week and into the weekend. Gentle
to moderate southerly flow will prevail south of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough. New long-period NW swell will enter the area 
from the northwest later today, then spread southeastward across
much of the area through Fri. Long-period southerly swell south 
of 05N and east of 125W will linger through tonight before 
gradually subsiding on Thu. Active convection along the monsoon 
trough east of 105W through Fri night as upper level conditions 
remain favorable. Looking ahead, new NW-N swell will enter the 
northern waters Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined 
cold front expected to move into the northeast waters over the 
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky