000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed May 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10.5N74.5W to 07.5N81W to 10N96W to 05N120W. The ITCZ begins from 05N120W to 09N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N east of 96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 98W and 115W, and from 07.5N to 09N west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The remnants of a cold frontal boundary can be seen in satellite imagery across central Baja California, just to the south of Punta Eugenia extending to near 25N120W. A 1029 mb high pressure center is located northwest of the boundary near 35N136W and extends a broad ridge southeastward to near 18N113W. This set-up is producing a modest pressure gradient across the regional waters. Moderate to fresh NNW winds prevail across the offshore waters west of Baja California, where seas are 6 to 8 ft except to 9 ft NW portions. Recent ASCAT data and coastal observations indicate strong NW winds wrapping around the southern end of the Baja peninsula near Cabo San Lucas, then becoming west to southwest from offshore of San Jose del Cabo and father east. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Moderate to locally fresh NW to W winds also extend southeastward and parallel along the remainder of Mexican coastal waters to Puerto Angel. Seas here are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds generally prevail across the full length of the Gulf of California. Seas there are in the 2-3 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section in SW swell. The high pressure northwest of the area will move eastward through Fri, allowing moderate to fresh winds to continue through Wed morning before diminishing slightly. Gentle winds in the northern Gulf of California will become moderate southeast to south winds Sat through Sun, and fresh south to southwest winds Sun night. West to northwest winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will pulse to fresh to locally strong again on Wed night. Northwest swell will continue west of Baja California through early Fri then increase late Fri and again Sun with new pulses of NW swell. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte this weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte and building seas to above 12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate offshore gap winds across the Papagayo and southern Nicaraguan waters. South of the trough, gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail and extend south of the equator. Seas are 3-5 ft in south to southwest across these waters, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 03.5N due to new southerly swell arriving. Several clusters of scattered strong convection have blossomed overnight across land, from western Colombia to offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala, while other similar scattered convection is along the monsoon trough east of 96W. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds offshore of Colombia and Ecuador will shift gradually northward to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica through Thu night, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. This is expected to combine with favorable upper level conditions to maintain active convection across the area through early Sat. Easterly gap winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. New long- eriod south to southwest swell will reach the waters off South America this morning, and the waters off Central America by early Thu, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high pressure located northwest of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ to about 28N and west of 127W, and N to NE winds elsewhere between 118W-127W. Moderate tradewind swell over this area is mixing with fading NW swell to produce seas of 7-9 ft. Elsewhere seas to 8 ft in south to southwest swell are present south of 03N between 95W and 132W. The moderate to fresh northeast trades are expected to persist through Thu as reinforcing high pressure builds in over the area. New long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southwest swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W through Wed night before gradually subsiding on Thu. Active convection along the monsoon trough east of 105W through Fri night as upper level conditions remain favorable. Looking ahead, new north-northwest swell will enter the northeast part of the area late Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined cold front expected to move into the NE waters over the weekend. $$ Stripling