000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040351 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 08N80W to 12.5N96W to 07N120W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, and continues to 09N131W and to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered strong convection over land extends up to 75 nm offshore along the coasts between 79W and 88W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 13.5N between 88.5W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The remnants of a cold frontal boundary can be seen extending from Baja California Norte along 29.5N to near 25N118W, then continues WSW to beyond 120W. A 1030 mb high pressure center located northwest of the boundary near 35.5N135W extends a broad ridge southeastward to near 18N110W. Scattered moderate convection can be seen in a narrow line along the boundary from Baja to 117W. This set-up is producing a modest pressure gradient across the regional waters. Moderate to fresh NNW winds prevail across the offshore waters west of Baja California, where seas are 6 to 8 ft except to 9 ft NW portions. Moderate to fresh NW winds also extend southeastward to along the remainder of Mexican coastal waters to Puerto Angel. Seas here are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds generally prevail across the full length of the Gulf of California. Seas there are in the 2-3 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section. The high pressure northwest of the area will move eastward, allowing moderate to fresh winds to continue through tonight. Gentle winds in the northern Gulf of California will become moderate southeast to south winds Sat through Sun, and fresh south to southwest winds Sun night. West to northwest winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will pulse to fresh tonight and again on Wed night. Northwest swell will continue west of Baja California through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte this weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte and building seas to above 12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle winds continue across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, and gentle south to southwest winds to the south of the trough. A small pocket of moderate to fresh south winds is east of 100W to the south of the monsoon trough to the south of 07N. Seas are 4-5 ft in south to southwest across these waters, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 03N due to the presence of higher southerly swell energy. Scattered strong convection of occurring over land from Panamas to southeast Guatemala along 91W, where clusters extend up to 75 nm offshore. Scattered strong convection is also across the outer offshore waters of Costa Rica south of 08N. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will continue through Thu night, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. New long-period south to southwest swell will reach the waters off South America Wed, and the waters off Central America by early Thu, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure located northwest of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh northeast trades north of the ITCZ to about 28N and west of 130W, and N to NE winds north of 09N between 120W-130W. Moderate tradewind swell over this area is allowing for seas of 7-9 ft. The dissipating cold front extends from near 24.5N120W to 23N130W. It will continue to sink southward over waters east of 125W through tonight. Moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6-7 ft are south of the front between 120W-128W. Elsewhere seas to 8 ft due to south to southwest swell are present south of 01S between 101W-127W. The moderate to fresh northeast trades are expected to persist through Thu as reinforcing high pressure builds in over the area. New long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period southwest swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W late tonight into Wed night before gradually subsiding on Thu. A surface trough along 107W from 04N to 17N is part of a broad area of low pressure that is present from 10N to 16N between 105W-113W. Deep convection associated with the trough is expected to persist across this region through Wed morning. The trough may linger for the rest of the week in that general area. Looking ahead, new north-northwest swell will enter the northeast part of the area late Sat through Sun associated with an ill defined cold front expected to move into the NE waters over the weekend. $$ Stripling